BMO analysts say Eli Lilly is well-positioned to maintain its lead in the ballooning weight loss space, predicting “strengthening leadership in obesity and beyond” as portfolios expand and patient access improves.
Eli Lilly has set out its strategy for dominating the obesity market in 2026 and beyond, betting that the expansion of its portfolio and manufacturing strength will enable the Indianapolis-based pharma to hold off emerging rivals.
Lilly has established itself as the market leader in obesity, coming from behind to replace Novo Nordisk as the prevailing force in the massive and fast-growing market. Now, Lilly faces the challenge of maintaining its leadership in the face of Novo’s efforts to regain momentum and potential GLP-1 launches from new market entrants including Pfizer and Roche.
Speaking at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Tuesday, Lilly CEO Dave Ricks set out his strategy for what he views as a new era in treating obesity and related complications. Ricks framed the new era as a shift from single approved products to broad portfolios of medicines across expanded indications, and from barriers to access to increasing coverage and direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales.
BMO Capital Markets analysts said they believe Lilly is well positioned to achieve its goals, predicting “strengthening leadership in obesity and beyond” in a note to investors on Tuesday. The analysts said broadening patient access and the potential launch of Lilly’s second GLP-1 molecule provide “growth and certainty” at the start of 2026.
Lilly secured expanded access through its recent deal with the Trump administration and had already unlocked DTC sales by setting up LillyDirect. Ricks said the DTC platform serves about 1 million people, adding that Lilly this year plans to “improve the flow, the checkout [and] the tech behind it.”
The drugmaker is also aiming to expand its portfolio of GLP-1 drugs across all channels this year, with Ricks expecting the FDA to approve the oral small molecule orforglipron in the second quarter. The exact timing is unknown given the lack of statutory deadlines for drug candidates with a new Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher, which orforglipron received in November.
Ricks said the important thing is that the approval is “in front of the [Medicare] Part D access expansion, and I expect it will be.” Securing FDA approval ahead of the access expansion would ensure orforglipron is available via Medicare Part D at the same time as Novo’s Wegovy pill, a rival oral GLP-1 drug that hit the market this month.
BMO analysts have predicted that the fasting requirement for the Wegovy pill will give orforglipron an edge. Earlier at the J.P. Morgan event, Novo CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar said orforglipron could have its own restrictions, pointing to a study protocol about concomitant statin use. Ricks said Doustdar’s point is a nonissue, arguing that “there’s no reason scientifically to expect anything” about statin use on the label.
Beyond Novo, Lilly could face competition from companies that have spent billions of dollars in pursuit of market share. Ricks outlined one strategy that he believes could be successful for new entrants.
“If there’s 200 chronic diseases that are downstream affected by obesity, surely Novo and Lilly will have left one or two behind,” Ricks said. “I think some companies will choose to niche into one of those, try to get pricing power [and] own a narrow but focused segment. That’s viable.”
Yet while Lilly may concede some niches, Ricks wants to control the main obesity market. Ricks pointed to Lilly’s pipeline to make the case that would-be rivals may find it hard to launch better drugs, and to its manufacturing scale to argue that new entrants will struggle to set significantly lower prices.
