In an analysis of BMS’ recent clinical history, Industry analysts at Trefis noted that two oncology drugs will be key revenue drivers for the company.
Bristol-Myers Squibb’s short-term financial future rests squarely on the shoulders of its two key cancer drugs Opdivo and Empliciti.
In an analysis of BMS’ recent clinical history, Industry analysts at Trefis noted that the two oncology drugs will be key revenue drivers for the company. Trefis estimates that BMS’ oncology revenue will significantly grow $3.5 billion in 2014 to $12.7 billion by 2022. The two key drugs, Opdivo and Empliciti will be the lynchpins to this prediction. Trefis forecasts the two drugs will account for 75 percent of BMS’ oncology revenue by 2022 and about 40 percent over the company’s overall revenue.
“Needless to say, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s future is highly tied to how these drugs perform,” Trefis said.
To achieve that goal Trefis said Opdivo should generate about 6 billion by 2022 and Empliciti should bring in about $3 billion annually by that year.
For Opdivo to bring in that much it will be dependent on opening new markets as well as staving off challenges from rival PD-1 inhibitors such as Merck‘s Keytruda. On Thursday, BMS indicated that it has a fairly clear path for Opdivo to be marketed in China for advanced lung cancer patients. A key Phase III trial was halted early because it met its primary endpoints in overall survival in patients with previously treated advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). BMS submitted a Biologics License Application (BLA) for Opdivo to the China Food and Drug Administration for the proposed indication. The Chinese regulatory agency accepted the BLA. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in China. By 2020, the same year Trefis said Opdivo should generate about $6 billion in sales, the number of newly diagnosed lung cancer patients in China is expected to hit 800,000.
Any critical Opdivo trial failures for future label expansions will certainly impact the drug’s revenue stream, Trefis added.
Empliciti should have a clearer path to generating $3 billion in annual revenue by 2020 due to a lack of competition currently on the market for multiple myeloma, Trefis said. The analysts said there is only one other immuno-oncology drug on the market for multiple myeloma – Janssen’s Darzalex. While there is limited competition in this indication, Trefis said there is also a limited patient population. According to Cancer.net, an estimated 30,280 adults in the United States will be diagnosed with multiple myeloma this year.
“…it is one of the smallest subtypes of cancer. Therefore, Bristol-Myers Squibb will have to be efficient in reaching as many patients as possible,” Trefis said.
Shares of BMS are trading at $63.48 as of 10:52 a.m.
