Roche Holding AG (ROG) may get the first signs at a cardiology conference this month that the Swiss drugmaker can garner $6.8 billion in sales with a pill to combat heart disease by raising so-called good cholesterol. The drug, dalcetrapib, may reap that much in annual revenue by 2020 if it works in patients who have had heart attacks, estimates Gbola Amusa, a UBS AG analyst in London. He gives the pill a one-in-four chance of succeeding. That’s by no means a sure thing. Basel, Switzerland-based Roche, known for cancer medicines such as Avastin and Herceptin, is venturing into a new area. The basic concept was dealt a setback in May when a study found an Abbott Laboratories (ABT) drug to raise good cholesterol didn’t prevent heart attacks. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) had to scrap its version in 2006 after patients died.
