While the pathogen appears unlikely to trigger a pandemic, analysts see potential for Moderna to build goodwill amid a period of political pressure on vaccine manufacturers.
Moderna’s share price rose 20% in one week as reports of hantavirus cases emerged at the beginning of May. The cluster of people with the severe respiratory illness triggered memories of the COVID-19 pandemic that transformed Moderna. Experts see the pathogen posing a low risk globally—potentially explaining a later drop in Moderna’s share price. Yet, at a time of political pressure on vaccine manufacturers, analysts suggest the cases provide a reminder of Moderna’s ability to protect society against pandemics.
On May 2, the World Health Organization (WHO) received a report of a cluster of passengers with severe respiratory illness aboard a cruise ship. By May 13, the cluster had grown to include 11 cases and three deaths linked to hantavirus, a pathogen that mainly infects humans through contact with the urine, feces or saliva of infected rodents.
Moderna is involved in two hantavirus vaccine projects that predate the cluster, one with the U.S. Army and another with Korea University College of Medicine. From May 1 to May 8, when WHO published its second notice about the cluster, Moderna’s share price rose from $45.37 to $54.35. In a May 12 note to investors, Jefferies analysts named “hantavirus outbreak fears” as a factor in the stock’s recent strength but cautioned that the virus is unlikely to spread widely enough to drive meaningful sales.
“Vaccine names are prone to react to potentially devastating headline news like this. But, in reality, when we looked into the hantavirus, the prevalence of it, it feels like this is a limited market opportunity,” Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai told BioSpace.
Tsai’s take aligns with WHO’s position. Andes hantavirus is endemic in South America, with 229 cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome reported last year. Human‑to‑human transmission is uncommon and associated with close, prolonged contact. The cruise ship cluster poses a low risk globally, WHO said. The assessment contrasts with WHO’s warnings about COVID-19. While the agency initially lacked information to assess the threat, it quickly classified the coronavirus that upended the world in 2020 as high risk.
A Moderna spokesperson declined to answer BioSpace’s questions about hantavirus but did confirm the company’s work with the U.S. Army and the Korea University program. The hantavirus efforts are “early-stage and ongoing and reflect Moderna’s broader responsibility to develop countermeasures against emerging infectious disease,” the spokesperson said via email.
Managing R&D risks
Moderna collaborated with Korea University through its mRNA Access Program, an initiative that enables external researchers to use the biotech’s platform to develop novel mRNA medicines for emerging and neglected infectious diseases. The Korea University project stalled over a lack of funding more than one year before the cruise ship cluster emerged, Seoul Economic Daily reported. It is unclear what Moderna’s involvement and rights are, with the company only providing brief statements to BioSpace and Tsai.
A Korean executive reportedly funded the first stage of the project, and the program halted as the team awaited a funding decision by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, suggesting Moderna is not bankrolling the project.
Relying on external funding could eliminate risks to Moderna. In the recent past, the biotech has advanced internal infectious disease programs that petered out after initial concerns about the pathogen began to fade.
After WHO declared the Zika virus a public health emergency of international concern in 2016, Moderna advanced a vaccine program that received support from the U.S. government. WHO declared the end of the public health emergency later that year. The vaccine entered Phase 1 in 2019 and Phase 2 in 2021, but Moderna later opted against further development in the absence of more outside funding.
In 2022, Moderna vowed to advance vaccines targeting the 15 pathogens that pose the biggest threat to public health into the clinic by 2025. However, with COVID-19 vaccine sales falling and Moderna cutting costs in a push for profitability, there is little evidence of the public health drive in the biotech’s pipeline. Moderna has two public health programs, for Nipah virus and monkeypox, and an IAVI collaboration on an HIV vaccine.
A timely reminder
Moderna has opted against investing in late-stage vaccine studies in response to the changing position of the U.S. government on vaccines, CEO Stéphane Bancel revealed in January. Regulatory roadblocks and diminishing support from health authorities have affected the U.S. market, Bancel said, and it is impossible to make a return on investment without the U.S.
Against that backdrop, the hantavirus cluster gives Moderna a chance to “build goodwill,” Jefferies said in its note to investors. The renewed focus on infectious disease “serves as a nice reminder that these companies are capable of producing a vaccine to mitigate pandemics,” Tsai said, adding that “maybe there is some value to that.”
The reminder comes at a moment of upheaval that could lead to changes that ease some pressures on Moderna and other vaccine manufacturers. Moderna’s flu vaccine program suffered a short setback in February when the FDA issued a refusal-to-file letter only to accept an amended application eight days later. The events happened under Marty Makary’s leadership of FDA.
Makary’s departure makes you wonder if vaccine approval will become easier, Tsai said. That will depend on who fills leadership vacancies at the agency, he added, with Moderna among the potential beneficiaries if “a friendlier vaccine regulator” takes the reins at FDA.
