Analysts agree that the failure of Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide to reduce Alzheimer’s disease progression removes a “modest” or “perceived” overhang on Biogen and the anti-amyloid antibody class in general, clearing the way for increased uptake of Leqembi and Eli Lilly’s Kisunla.
Alzheimer’s disease is intractable, foiling most therapeutic efforts over the past several decades. On Monday, it stymied even the great GLP-1 class—handing a leg up to Biogen.
“The outcome technically removes an overhang for [Biogen], enabling the competitive landscape to soften and Leqembi (abeta) sales to potentially accelerate,” Jefferies analysts wrote in a note to investors Monday after Novo announced that semaglutide did not reduce Alzheimer’s disease progression in a pair of Phase III trials.
Stifel agreed that the failure “removes a modest overhang” on Biogen.
“While our expectations here were generally low, success of these studies could’ve resulted in another impediment to uptake for abeta antibodies, which have been hindered by a number of bottleneck issues (diagnostics, IV infusions, MRIs, etc),” the analysts wrote in a Monday note to investors.
The studies, EVOKE and EVOKE+, were inspired by real world evidence that suggested Novo’s blockbuster GLP-1 could have an effect on the memory-robbing disease.
Jefferies noted that even had the trials been successful, there could have been upside for Biogen—which developed and co-markets Leqembi with partner Eisai. A positive readout for Novo “could have improved uptake of Abeta drugs with another player in the Alzheimer’s market driving increased awareness.”
Biogen stock was up 2.6% as the markets opened on Monday, trading at $179.75 per share.
On the Upswing
Biogen and Eisai are in the Alzheimer’s market alongside just one competitor, Eli Lilly’s Kisunla, also an anti-amyloid antibody, and Leqembi has had a good year.
Jefferies pointed to the FDA approval in September and subsequent October launch of Leqembi Iqlik, a subcutaneous formulation of the therapy that BMO Capital Markets at the time said “could expand access” to Leqembi “as more patients push into longer term treatment.” Biogen is also anticipating a decision from the FDA on a subcutaneous induction formulation of Leqembi. Jefferies expects approval to arrive in the mid-2026.
From a competitive perspective, Jefferies is looking ahead to the readout of Lilly’s TRAILBLAZER-ALZ-3 study, which is studying Kisunla in patients with preclinical Alzheimer’s disease. While the trial is slated to wrap in November 2027, Jefferies is anticipating data as early as the end of this year or the first half of 2026.
“We think positive data could ultimately derisk the broader abeta class,” the analysts wrote. The study could also be a positive read through for Leqembi’s AHEAD 3-45, which “may have a more robust study design.” AHEAD 3-45 is studying Leqembi in people with preclinical Alzheimer’s and elevated amyloid, and in those with early preclinical Alzhiemer’s and intermediate amyloid. Jefferies said that data is expected in 2028 at the earliest.
RBC Capital Markets agreed in a Monday note that the semaglutide trials had been a “perceived overhang” on Biogen. “Now through the sema data, and solidifying that while not perfect, the beta-amyloid class remains the only true disease-modifying option in Alzheimer’s, we believe this should clear the way for appreciation into what we expect will be a more eventful late-'25/2026,” the analysts wrote, also pointing to the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ3 readout.
As for Novo, the company did report an improvement of Alzheimer’s disease-related biomarkers in both EVOKE and EVOKE+, and Jefferies analysts said they were looking forward to a presentation of the results at the upcoming Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease (CTAD) conference, taking place next week in San Diego. Novo will present topline results from the trials on Dec. 3.
