In its latest biopharma pipeline report, Deloitte warned that the growing importance of a small pool of potential mega-blockbusters raises the risk of “significant value destruction from a single program failure.”
Obesity has replaced oncology as the largest contributor of pipeline value, according to a Deloitte analysis, marking the first time in the report’s 16-year history that cancer has slipped from the top spot.
Deloitte’s latest report is the culmination of obesity’s rapid emergence in recent years as a major market. In 2022, obesity accounted for 1% of the forecast revenues of the top 20 biopharma companies, compared to 32% for oncology. Cancer retained its crown in 2023, 18 percentage points ahead of the second-place therapeutic area, infectious disease. By 2024, oncology’s share slipped to 26% while the obesity space rose to 16%.
The latest report, which looks at the overall biopharma pipeline in 2025, ascribes 25% of the pipeline’s value to obesity and 20% to oncology. Three unnamed drug developers account for 96% of the value Deloitte assigns to obesity assets. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are the undisputed leaders in the space.
Obesity’s impact is evident across the report. Average forecast peak sales per asset jumped from $510 million in 2024 to $598 million in 2025, largely due to GLP-1/GIP receptor agonists for obesity and related conditions. Excluding GLP-1/GIP drugs, the average fell from $370 million to $353 million.
Similarly, the projected internal rate of return on late-stage pipeline assets rose from 5.9% in 2024 to 7% in 2025. However, the rate fell from 3.8% to 2.9%, excluding GLP-1/GIP drugs. The vast market for obesity drugs skewed the results, according to Deloitte.
More broadly, the firm found that the pipeline’s value is increasingly concentrated in mega-blockbusters. The number of asset-indications forecast to achieve peak sales greater than $10 billion increased from six to eight, and the average value of those mega-blockbusters rose 14.7%. Deloitte said that 54 blockbuster asset-indications, representing about 9% of the late-stage cohort, account for around 70% of total risk-adjusted peak sales.
The cost of developing a single asset has also risen, Delloitte found. It cost $2.67 billion to bring one single asset from discovery to launch in 2025, as compared to $2.23 billion in 2024.
Obesity also affected the proportion of value assigned to molecules with novel mechanisms of action. In 2025, novel mechanisms accounted for 53% of value, up from 35% in 2024. Ten mechanisms, primarily GLP-1 combinations, accounted for 60% of the value of novel approaches to treating disease.
While blockbuster drugs are an established part of the pharmaceutical industry, Deloitte said the degree to which value is now concentrated in relatively few molecules and mechanisms is new. The consolidation of pipeline value creates “a precarious balance of high potential returns and the risk of significant value destruction from a single program failure,” according to the firm.
Several companies are racing to ensure they are among the winners of the obesity market boom. Eli Lilly is the market leader, just behind Novo Nordisk, which despite its recent difficulties, is an established force in the sector. With the April 1 approval of Lilly’s Foundayo, the two juggernauts have embarked on what could be theirtightest race yet: obesity pills. Pfizer has bet big to join the leaders, and Roche is aiming to become a “top three player” in the market.
