While Moderna’s full-year sales landed in the upper end of its target range, Jefferies analysts said further reductions are needed if the biotech hopes to hit its 2028 break-even target.
Moderna kicked off its J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on a high note, reporting unaudited full-year revenue near the upper end of its target range and revealing that it cut costs faster than expected.
The Massachusetts-based biotech went into 2025 expecting full-year revenue of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion. The mRNA specialist lowered the top end of the forecast by $300 million in August and narrowed the sales range to $1.6 billion to $2 billion in November. On Monday, however, ahead of a presentation at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, Moderna said it expects 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion.
That figure is in line with the consensus on Wall Street, Jefferies analysts said in a note to investors on Monday. However, the analyst firm believes more action is required for Moderna to hit its 2028 breakeven target.
“We think more reductions are needed to instill investor confidence in [management’s] 2028 cash breakeven guidance,” the analysts wrote in their Monday note.
The reported sales expectations came alongside a further reduction in Moderna’s operating expenses. The biotech now expects operating expenses of $5 billion to $5.2 billion in 2025. These figures reflect a $200 million cut to both ends of the range Moderna shared in November, continuing a trend that began earlier in the company’s financial year.
After incurring operating expenses of $7.2 billion in 2024, Moderna removed $400 million from its projections in August 2025 to establish a range of $5.9 billion to $6.1 billion. The company then reduced both ends of that range by another $700 million in November.
These guidance changes came as Moderna worked to hit its target of reducing its operating costs by up to $1.7 billion by 2027. Management is overseeing the cost-cutting drive as part of a push to break even by 2028. While costs fell faster than planned in 2025, Moderna has retained its operating expense guidance for 2026 and 2027.
Preserving cash burn—which Jefferies calculated was around $1.4 billion in 2025—is another factor that would give Wall Street confidence that Moderna can meet its 2028 guidance, Jefferies said. Ultimately, the group expects Moderna to miss the goal but break even somewhere between 2029 and 2030.
One factor that could help Moderna reach its target is accelerating revenue growth. Jefferies said COVID-19 vaccine sales outside the U.S. should be a driver of overall revenue this year, reflecting contracts Moderna has signed in Australia, Canada and the U.K. The analysts flagged the lapsing of a competitor’s COVID-19 contract in 2026 as a potential sales driver for 2027.
With Moderna’s respiratory syncytial virus vaccine generating minimal sales, the biotech remains reliant on its COVID-19 franchise. Planned launches of influenza, norovirus, oncology and rare disease products could reduce Moderna’s reliance on COVID-19 vaccines in the coming years.
