November 2, 2015
By Mark Terry, BioSpace.com Breaking News Staff
It’s a big week for biopharma investors as GlaxoSmithKline , Roche , and Sanofi all host business meetings. As a result, investors are outlining what they hope to hear from each company.
“Roche probably has the easiest job,” said Berenberg Bank analyst Alistair Campbell to Reuters, “since we know they have good data with new multiple sclerosis (MS) and oncology drugs, whereas GSK and Sanofi have quite a lot to prove.”
Roche
Roche has three drugs that are highly anticipated, ocrelizumab for MS, atezolizumab for cancer, and ACE-910 for hemophilia. According to a Thomson Reuters Cortellis consensus forecast, the three drugs, if approved, have potential combined sales of $5 billion by 2020. The breakdown for that would be $1.051 billion for ocrelizumab, $3.188 billion for atezolziumab, and $721 million for ACE-910.
And although company executives have repeatedly denied it, analysts regularly speculate on a merger between Novartis and Roche. One of the reasons this comes up is that Novartis already owns a 33 percent stake in Roche Holding AG. “On paper, you can generate a lot of value, that is true,” Joerg Reinhardt, chairman of Novartis told Bilanz Business Talk in a recent interview. “Our philosophy is, we want to grow organically.”
GlaxoSmithKline
The pressure is on GSK’s chief executive, Andrew Witty, to show the company is back on track for growth and out from under a major China scandal that cost the company $500 million in fines and a significant loss of goodwill with the Chinese government.
Reuters suggests that GSK will focus on its experimental shingles vaccine Shingrix, its medication for asthma, Nucala, sirukumab for rheumatoid arthritis, and a new long-acting HIV drug. The company has indicated it will profile about 40 experimental medications at the event, although nobody yet knows how many will be ready to enter Phase III trials in the next year.
Nucala, if approved, is projected to make $756 million per year. Shingrix could earn $594 million annually, and sirukumab, developed with Johnson & Johnson , could bring in $980 million.
Sanofi
Sanofi’s chief executive officer, Olivier Brandicourt, took over the Paris-based company after the headline-making ouster of Chris Viehbacher late last year. Recently the company has had two big announcements, one good, one bad.
In late August, Sanofi announced it was partnering with Google/Alphabet’s Life Sciences on diabetes monitoring and treatment. Although no financial details were disclosed, Brandicourt stated, “This initiative combines Sanofi‘s strength and knowledge in diabetes with Google Inc.’s leadership in technology and analytics to create a first-of-its-kind initiative with the potential to transform diabetes care.”
On a less positive note, there have been rumors that Sanofi has frozen hiring for its sales team for its inhaled insulin product, Afrezza, in a deal with MannKind Corporation . The inhaled diabetes treatment has gotten off to a far slower start than expected, although some analysts believe it’s only a matter of time before Sanofi works out the pricing and reimbursement issues with insurers. Investors will undoubtedly want more solid news regarding Sanofi’s intentions regarding the drug.
Otherwise, analysts are expecting Brandicort to provide a broader strategy, plans for cost savings, company restructuring, drug pipeline and what acquisitions, if any, the company may be planning. Recent reports have suggested Brandicourt is considering selling its bio-surgery and renal units, and possibly its Merial animal health division.
On the pipeline side, Sanofi’s dupilumab, for asthma and dermatitis, developed with Regeneron, has a potential for $1.409 billion in sales. Its sarilumab, for rheumatoid arthritis, also with Regeneron , is projected at $516 million in sales, and LixiLan, for diabetes, has a potential of $815 million.
GSK’s meeting will be held Nov. 3 in New York. Roche’s meeting is in London on Nov. 5, and Sanofi is hosting a “meet management” seminar on Nov. 6 in Paris.
