“However, generic erosion continues to impact performance, driven in part by the somewhat unexpected approval of a generic Lovenox product. With Plavix sales also in decline due to loss of European patent exclusivity, Sanofi-Aventis’s anti-thrombotic empire is in collapse.
“These results occur against a backdrop of continued negotiation regarding Sanofi’s proposed acquisition of Genzyme. Sanofi has used its results announcement to launch its latest salvo towards Genzyme shareholders by suggesting that nothing has been said that will change its current offer.
“Genzyme though is now being very bullish in terms of sales forecasts – which will be heavily dependent on reversing the loss of sales to Shire in specialist markets and the success of Campath in multiple sclerosis.
“This stance could backfire – especially if Sanofi walks away and no alternative suitors emerge – however the Genzyme acquisition ‘fits the Sanofi model”.
AstraZeneca
“Q3 revenue is down year-on-year due to generic exposure with Arimidex, Pulmicort Respules and Toprol-XL the key casualties. Exposure to generic competition is also evident at geographic level with a sharp decline in US sales, thereby increasing the importance of AstraZeneca’s planned expansion in emerging markets.
“AstraZeneca’s exposure to generic competition will only worsen over next few years as Symbicort, Seroquel and Nexium franchises have lost patent exclusivity.
“The company has not followed many of its peers in diversifying into lower margin but more stable segments and its ‘pure play’ pharma model is becoming questionable in light of the intensifying generic competition.
“Crestor and Symbicort remain the jewels in the crown – sales up 20% and 19%, respectively - but the question remains as to how Crestor will perform beyond late 2011 when generic Lipitor becomes available. Will Symbicort hold off new respiratory market entrants.
“As a result, the company’s growth outlook will remain heavily tied to new product launches and the progression of late stage products through the regulatory arena
“Sentiment moving into 2011 will therefore be significantly shaped by the US FDA’s decision on Brilinta in December. AstraZeneca cannot suffer any further late stage setbacks”.
Simon King is available for comment.
To arrange an interview or for further details regarding this release please contact Joe Dixon in the Datamonitor press office on + 44 (0)161 238 4083, or email jdixon@datamonitor.com
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