If Eli Lilly’s obesity pill orforglipron is approved and priced around $200 per month, analysts at Truist predict patients will flock to it.
Eli Lilly’s trio of obesity medications could reach $101 billion in peak revenue worldwide, with 17.6 million eligible people around the world taking one of the pharma’s medications, according to a new estimate from Truist Securities.
The firm has updated revenue expectations for Lilly in light of the recent White House agreement to lower the price of its weight loss medications and provide access to those drugs to Medicare patients. While a lower price would suggest less revenue, Truist is confident that Lilly has secured a wider patient population with the deal.
Truist had previously expected Lilly’s incretin medicines—which are the approved injectable drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, as well as the hotly anticipated oral option orforglipron—to reach $85 billion in peak sales. The number went up by $16 billion mainly thanks to orforglipron, which has risen from peak revenue assumptions of $22 billion to $41 billion. The firm is predicting higher uptake due to favorable pricing that will boost accessibility for patients.
If Lilly prices the drug at around $200 per month, Truist said it believes patients will flock to it.
“We note that the obesity market is highly elastic with higher volumes of patients tending to stay on drug for longer periods of time given lower price points,” Truist wrote. “We also believe that the orforglipron pricing will increase competitiveness with compounders that may otherwise have captured market share in the obesity space.”
Lilly is working to bring orforglipron to market after a series of positive readouts, both for weight loss and for treating diabetes. Truist suspects Lilly will use a priority review voucher it has in hand to get the drug through the FDA faster, with access beginning in the first half of 2026.
“We anticipate rapid uptake and significant expansion of the obesity market once the oral pill has been approved,” Truist wrote.
Orforglipron is expected to book about $500 million in sales for its first year on the market, reaching 360,000 patients. Overall, Truist expects the trio of medicines to collect $25.7 billion in 2026.
