Biotech's Full Monte

Recently, I explained how to forecast potential drug sales in Don't Be a Biotech Gambler and Unraveling Biotech Potential. The drug BAY 43-9006 from Onyx Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ONXX - News) and Bayer (NYSE: BAY - News) provided a good example, which would fit most situations, but it had some shortcomings nonetheless. The biggest drawback is in using exact estimates for variables such as market share when it's not possible to pin down a specific figure.