June 27, 2016
By Mark Terry, BioSpace.com Breaking News Staff
Arguing The Case for Pfizer Buying Amgen
Is Pfizer considering buying Amgen ? Although BidnessEtc writes today about how a good fit it would be, given a number of factors, so far nothing official along those lines have been announced.
In April, Pfizer called off its plans to merge with Dublin-based Allergan , largely due to new U.S. Treasury rules aimed at curbing tax inversion deals. This prompted numerous analysts to speculate on what companies Pfizer might acquire.
At the same time, even during the Pfizer-Allergan prenuptial planning, divorce was already in the cards, as the company was also planning to split the merged company into two units. One would focus on newer, faster-growing drugs and the other would focus on mature slow-growth products.
Aliya Kaleem, writing for BidnessEtc, points out that Pfizer has been in a slow process of restructuring for some time, starting with the sale in 2012 of its nutritional products division to Nestle. Then it spun off its animal health unit, Zoetis , as a separate company in January 2013. This was followed by a failed inversion merger with AstraZeneca in 2014, then Allergan. “Pfizer has been reporting declining sales since the past few years, as some of its top revenue generating products lost their patents, landing a dent on the company’s revenues,” writes Kaleem. “Some of the items to contribute to the sales decline include Lipitor, Celebrex, and Xalatan/Xalacom.”
The plans to split Pfizer appear to still be on the table, although to what extent is largely unknown. When the Allergan deal collapsed, Pfizer’s chief executive officer, Ian Read, said, “We plan to make a decision about whether to pursue a potential separation of our innovative and established businesses by no later than the end of 2016, consistent with our original timeframe for the decision prior to the announcement of the potential Allergan transaction.”
That would, according to Kaleem, mean Pfizer splitting off its Global Established Products (GEP) business. This is also called Pfizer Essential Health, and is made up of established and off-patent drugs.
Pfizer would then be made up of two other major business segments, Global Innovation Products (GIP), and Vaccines Oncology and Consumer (VOC). GIP includes drugs such as Lyrica, Enbrel, Xeljanz, and Eliquis, which brought in $3.6 billion in this year’s first quarter alone. GIP projections for 2016 are $14.6 billion.
VOC brought in $3.4 billion in this year’s first quarter, or about 29 percent of total company revenues. The primary driver was Prevnar, a vaccine, and Ibranc, an oncology drug. Projections are it will have $14.7 billion in sales this year.
GEP had sales of $5.9 billion in the first quarter, or about 45 percent of total revenues. Projections are it will hit $23.4 billion this year.
Kaleem writes, “The declining revenue from all three units suggests that the company needs a strategic acquisition, which would boost all of the units. This target might be hard to acquire, but there are a few options which would fit into the separate units well, thereby pushing the growth rates.”
Which is where Amgen fits in, assuming it fits in at all. The company has annual revenue of close to $22 billion. Its older drugs include Enbrel, Neupogen, Neulasta and Epogen. They are near patent expiration, which would fit with Pfizer’s GEP.
Otherwise, Amgen has a strong and growing oncology portfolio, including Xgeva, Prolia, Kyprolis, Vectibix, and Blincyto. These are expected to drive company revenues and would be a good fit with Pfizer’s VOC unit. And Amgen’s cardiology and metabolic drugs would fit reasonably well with Pfizer’s GIP division.
Pfizer has about $13 billion in cash, and Amgen stock has dropped almost 7 percent this year. Amgen is currently trading for $145.64 per share.
Pfizer is trading for $33.71.
Pfizer recently completed its acquisition of Anacor Pharmaceuticals . Maybe Amgen is next.
