Novo Goes ‘All In’ on Wegovy Pill but Analysts Worry It’s Not Enough

Facade of Novo Nordisk's office in Fremont, California

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Novo Nordisk CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar acknowledged the market pressure facing the company’s GLP-1 products but sought to assure investors that Novo has the situation under control.

Novo Nordisk is putting everything it has behind the Wegovy pill. In fact, watchers of “The Big Game” on Sunday should expect to see a message from the Danish pharma on the weight loss oral.

“We have gone all in. This has been the best launch . . . because we have really put in all the activities and the promotions that they could think of,” CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar said on a fourth quarter earnings call Wednesday.

But none of these promises seemed to assuage analysts on the call. Novo is currently enjoying market exclusivity for the Wegovy pill, which received the FDA’s nod at the end of 2025. But fierce rival Eli Lilly is closing in fast with orforglipron, having already submitted to the FDA for approval and receiving an FDA Commissioner’s voucher to speed the review process.

Doustdar acknowledged the market pressure but sought to assure investors that Novo has the situation under control.

“I would say that the last two years has taught us something very specific with the obesity market,” Doustdar said. “It has taught us that the number one criteria for a patient picking up anti-obesity medication is the magnitude of weight loss.”

And on that, the Wegovy pill has its competitor beat, Doustdar insisted. The pill has shown 16.6% weight loss plus cardiovascular benefits. The rival, orforglipron—which he did not name—achieved just 12.4%.

“If you ask pretty much any patient, and certainly ask me, which one would you rather take? 17% weight loss or 12%? I know my answer, and we have seen the answer from 170,000 [patients] coming on very quickly,” Doustdar said.

Novo is also now prepared to go for a volume play on its weight loss medications, after signing an agreement with the Trump administration in November to offer the drugs at a low price. The company released its fourth-quarter earnings results a day early on Tuesday, revealing that lower drug prices had impacted expected earnings for 2026. Novo now expects sales to decline by 5% in 2026.

Novo Nordisk beat analyst expectations for the fourth quarter, but the result was overshadowed by softened expectations for this year.

“We have all acknowledged how volatile and dynamic the obesity market is with a lot of moving parts,” Doustdar said of the guidance for 2026.

CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen said it’s still early days for evaluations of how exactly volume will play into sales but the company is encouraged by the first four weeks of the pill’s launch as well as injectables sales following the reduction in price. The Wegovy injectable is now priced at $199, which has opened up the cash pay market, according to Knudsen.

“We are seeing a volume response to the lower prices,” Knudsen confirmed.

The GLP-1 products will also become available for seniors via Medicare, which Knudsen expects will have an impact in the middle of the year.

Knudsen anticipates the true volume to become clearer in 2027 after modest growth through 2026.

The lower prices could also have another effect: undercutting the compounders that have dogged Novo’s Wegovy sales. David Moore, executive VP of U.S. operations, said there hasn’t been much change so far with the $199 price. But the launch of the pill could bring patients back over to the branded product.

“We certainly expect that there could be some switching that’s coming from compounding, but it’s a little bit early to tell,” Moore said. While Novo is getting “daily feeds” of pill prescriptions, he said that doesn’t really include whether a patient has switched from a compounded product, so the company will need to do additional research on that point.

Novo Nordisk has plummeted back to Earth after a stunning rise driven by Ozempic and Wegovy. Can the storied Danish pharma recover?

The compounders capitalized on supply challenges Novo experienced as injectable Wegovy met unprecedented demand in its early days. Doustdar said that will not happen again because the oral launch was timed carefully with the stockpiling of product.

“We have seen an incredible uptick, I would say, in the first month, and today I will reaffirm to you that we feel incredibly confident that we will be able to supply the U.S. market,” the CEO said.

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