While Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill reached more than 3,000 patients in its first week on the market, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said a direct comparison of the two figures could be misleading given the shorter data collection time for Foundayo.
Eli Lilly’s oral obesity drug Foundayo is off to what appears to be a lukewarm launch, hitting 1,390 scripts in its first week on the market. However, analysts at RBC Capital Markets provided further context for that number.
“We believe the 1,390 TRx is based on 2 days of TRx capture, assuming Foundayo shipped on April 9,” said RBC, which disclosed the prescription data in a note to investors on Friday morning, citing data from IQVIA. Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy reached more than 3,000 patients in the first week of its launch. However, the Wegovy pill launched on Jan 5, which was a Monday, giving it 5 days of market capture before script data were collected, the analysts said.
“This implies a more robust launch for Foundayo, with TRx likely building momentum across the subsequent 3 days of its first week,” RBC continued. Still, the firm said, “This comparison so early into the launch should be considered immaterial.”
The FDA signed off on Foundayo on April 1, reigniting the rivalry between Novo and Lilly—this time in the oral obesity arena. A lot is riding on Foundayo’s launch, which has high expectations set by Lilly’s tirzepatide franchise (branded as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for chronic weight management).
Even before hitting the market, however, Foundayo has already run into some issues. In its approval letter, the FDA flagged “unexpected” and “serious” safety risks affecting the heart and liver, and requested further post-marketing assessments. A Phase 3 diabetes readout on Thursday may have partly answered these concerns, demonstrating significant reductions in major adverse cardiovascular events without triggering drug-induced liver injury.
“If a benchmark is required for weeks 1-4, our discussions with investors suggest that hitting 50% of oral Wegovy’s comparable trajectory would be viewed favorably,” RBC wrote on Friday, though the analysts noted that weeks 8-12 “represent the earliest window to assess Foundayo’s true commercial momentum.”
Looking beyond script data, RBC also pointed to positive early social media buzz around Foundayo, which, according to the firm, “suggests optimism in the T2D and obesity community.”
Lilly is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 30, at which time RBC expects executives to provide more in-depth insights on Foundayo’s launch and uptake.
