Pfizer and Novo Nordisk seem to want Metsera bad. Analysts are wondering, though: is the obesity biotech really worth this much effort?
An explosive bidding war has burst into the public sphere for a less than two-year-old obesity biotech called Metsera. While the two suitors, Novo Nordisk and Pfizer, trade barbs in and out of the courts, analysts had a big question for both on earnings calls this week: what’s the big deal?
According to Novo’s executives, Metsera’s pipeline will bring needed differentiation to the Danish pharma’s obesity work. Ludovic Helfgott, EVP of product and portfolio strategy at Novo, told analysts on Wednesday at the company’s third quarter earnings call that, of Metsera’s assets, of particular interest are MET-097 and MET-233.
The first is a GLP-1 receptor agonist designed for once-monthly dosing. Novo’s currently semaglutide offerings must be dosed once a week, although the company has a daily pill version of Wegovy before regulators.
Metsera is developing an injectable version of MET-097 in a Phase IIb trial called VESPER. Topline results released at the end of September—days after Pfizer’s initial announcement of it acquiring Metsera—showed 14% placebo-adjusted weight reduction at 28 weeks. Leerink Partners compared Metsera’s results with Eli Lilly’s blockbuster weight loss drug tirzepatide, which achieved 13% weight loss at the same time point.
On the Pfizer call, TD Cowen analyst Steve Scala said Metsera’s “data looks more similar than different than competitors,” and pointed out that the biotech has not released full data yet. “Nothing in all this justifies a bidding war or even a protracted legal battle,” Scala suggested.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla insisted that Pfizer had taken a close look at the data behind Metsera’s assets—both public and non-public. “I know what we are getting,” he said. Bourla believes that Metsera would set Pfizer up with a competitive edge over rivals—including Novo.
Metsera is also developing an oral version of MET-097 and a pro-drug formulation for maintenance therapy. Neither are in the clinic yet.
MET-233, meanwhile, is a long-acting amylin analog currently being tested in a Phase I trial alone and in combination with the MET-097 injectable. MET-233 is also being designed for once monthly dosing.
Metsera developed the drug based on research from the Imperial College, London. It is part of a next-generation class of drugs with the nutrient stimulated hormone (NuSH) analog peptide class, which are a group of hormone pathways that act on the gut-brain axis to modulate appetite and insulin production. Both GLP-1 and gastric inhibitory peptides (GIPs) belong to the NuSH class, but Metsera believes it has developed a new wave of therapies that can improve tolerability and weight loss—including quality of that weight loss.
That platform and an array of earlier assets attracted Novo, Helfgott explained.
“Metsera’s institutional knowledge and capabilities around peptide engineering and synthesis, high flight extension technologies and oral peptide delivery nicely complements Novo Nordisk’s core strength in research,” he said.
Bright Beginnings
Metsera emerged in April 2024 with $290 million in financing led by ARCH Venture Partners, with further participation from F-Prime Capital, GV, Mubadala Capital, Newpath Partners, SoftBank Vision Fund 2 and others.
The founders envisioned a biotech that could offer the next-generation in obesity care, covering issues that the leading approved medicines, Novo’s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound, did not address. Board member Kristina Burow, managing director of ARCH Venture Partners, said at the time that the company would improve on weight maintenance, muscle preservation, dosing frequency and efficacy, tolerability and patient access.
The company accelerated at a rapid pace. In September 2024, the Phase I trial of MET-097 showed a 7.5% reduction in body weight at day 36. Two months later, Metsera literally took those results to the bank, raising a $215 million series B, adding new investors and preparing for the Phase II trial of MET-097.
In early January, MET-097 read out initial Phase II results, showing 1.3% mean placebo-adjusted weight loss at 12 weeks with no plateau observed. Again, Metsera capitalized on the excitement, this time striking out for Nasdaq with an initial public offering. To date, it remains the most successful biotech IPO of the year, with the shares climbing 176% since the debut. Since Pfizer’s initial offer, Metsera’s shares have risen from around $33 to over $73 today.
In June, MET-233 got some time in the sun. The drug achieved placebo-subtracted mean weight loss up to 8.4% at day 36 in a Phase I trial.
Three months later, Pfizer’s offer arrived, which S&P Capital Markets valued at about $7.6 billion. Metsera was offered $4.9 billion upfront, plus a contingent value right for the remaining value at closing. A few days later, Metsera released the 14.1% weight loss data for MET-097.
In regulatory documents that came out detailing the Pfizer transaction, Metsera revealed a bidding war over the summer. We now know that Novo was one of the companies fighting for the deal.
As of publication, Novo’s $10 billion revised bid, submitted yesterday, is the highest and Pfizer has two business days to respond.
