It’s time for some pharmaceutical prognostication. EvaluatePharma released its forward-looking report to 2024 that includes predictions of the best-selling prescription drugs.
It’s time for some pharmaceutical prognostication. EvaluatePharma released its forward-looking report to 2024 that includes predictions of the best-selling prescription drugs.
The report, EvaluatePharma World Preview 2018, Outlook to 2024, said the total global pharmaceutical market in 2024 will have a value of $1.2 trillion. Orphan drugs are predicted to remain one of the fastest growth areas of the global pharmaceutical market, while the rare disease space is predicted to capture 20 percent of the total market in 2024, according to the report. With that being said though, the top five best-selling drugs in 2024 are quite familiar to the industry.
Writing in The Motley Fool, analyst Keith Speights lays out a quick review of the predicted best-sellers.
1. Humira – AbbVie’s Humira is the top-selling drug in the world right now and that’s a spot it is likely to hold onto over the next six years, the report predicts. During the first quarter of 2018 sales of rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira grew 14.4 percent globally, including 11.4 percent growth in the United States. That growth means Humira generated $4.71 billion during the quarter. In 2017 it generates a total of $18.43 billion in revenue, about two-thirds of AbbVie’s revenue. Speights noted that Humira is likely to see a decline in earnings by 2024 to $15.2 billion as it faces increased competition from biosimilars and other products. But that competition isn’t expected to begin in the United States until 2023, so there’s plenty of time for AbbVie to earn billions.
2. Keytruda – Merck will see significant gains from its strong cancer drug, Keytruda over the next six years. EvaluatePharma predicts the checkpoint inhibitor will bring in $12.7 billion in 2024 – up from the $3.8 billion it made in 2017. Part of the reason for the increase is the rapid pace in which Merck is seeking to gain regulatory approval for Keytruda in multiple indications, Speight said. The clinical successes of Keytruda continue to show why the checkpoint inhibitor is a key lynchpin in Merck’s pipeline. The drug is in late-stage trials for multiple types of cancer, including breast cancer, bladder cancer, renal cancer and small-cell lung cancer.
3. Revlimid -- Celgene’s blockbuster multiple myeloma drug Revlimid brought in about $8 billion in 2017, Speights said. EvaluatePharma believes that will increase to $11.9 billion in 2024. That prediction though could change as Revlimid continues to be challenged by other drugmakers. Speights noted that it’s likely Celgene, which is highly dependent on Revlimid revenue, will strike deals to hold off potential challengers.
4. Opdivo – Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Opdivo, a key rival to Merck’s Keytruda, is projected to double its annual income by 2024. Last year the checkpoint inhibitor earned about $5.7 billion. In six years EvaluatePharma predicts annual revenue of $11.2 billion.
5. Eliquis – Another BMS drug, Eliquis, a Factor Xa inhibitor used as an anticlotting treatment, is projected to bring home about $10.5 billion in 2024. While that is a nice annual return, Speights noted that BMS will share those earnings with Pfizer.
The EvaluatePharma predictions are just that, predictions. Any number of things could happen that alter the revenue projections. While Speights expressed some caution for investors using the predictions as a basis to buy stocks, he also predicted that the future will be especially bright for AbbVie, Celgene, and Pfizer.
