Deals for Chinese radiopharmaceutical assets have been rare to date and there is a limited pool of potential Western buyers available, Sleuth said.
Next year will bring a significant rise in deals between Chinese radioligand therapy developers and companies capable of supplying the drugs in the West, according to biopharma intelligence platform Sleuth.
China accounts for 45% of active nuclear medicine programs—including diagnostics—and has a particularly high share of the preclinical and Phase 1 pipeline, Sleuth said in its third quarter radiopharma report. In areas such as antibody-drug conjugates, China’s R&D activity has translated into frequent deals with Western drugmakers. Yet a comparable surge in deals for Chinese radioligand therapies (RLTs) has yet to materialize.
Sleuth predicts 2027 will be the year that Western in-licensing of Chinese RLTs accelerates. The forecast reflects the presence of Western companies that have established supply chains capable of supporting RLTs in-licensed from China.
“The value of China’s pipeline accrues to whoever in the West owns the RLT infrastructure,” Sleuth said. “A company serious about RLT should build or buy the isotopes and manufacturing now. Once that chain is running, in-licensed assets, China’s included, can drop much more easily onto it.”
Sleuth’s focus on infrastructure stems from the unique nature of RLT supply. Radioisotopes are generated using nuclear reactors and other specialized equipment. Because the molecules are radioactive, they have specific handling and regulatory requirements and must reach patients before the isotope decays.
RLT infrastructure is specific to nuclear medicine, limiting companies’ ability to leverage supply chains built for other modalities. Equally, companies cannot rely on Chinese originators of in-licensed assets to supply molecules. Western companies can in-license or buy Chinese assets, but the radioactive supply chain must remain local, Sleuth said.
The supply requirements mean there is a limited pool of potential Western buyers for Chinese RLTs. Novartis, which sells the RLTs Lutathera and Pluvicto, is one company with the infrastructure to produce and distribute RLTs in the West. The Swiss drugmaker is also a rare example of a Western company that has licensed a Chinese RLT. Novartis paid Zonsen PepLib Biotech $50 million upfront for an RLT in January.
Supply chains will determine which RLT developers stay independent, Sleuth said. To be a standalone RLT leader in 2028, businesses will need a differentiated asset with locked isotope supply and manufacturing, the company said. Asset-only RLT developers can succeed, but only as partners or acquisition targets for companies with established supply chains, Sleuth added.
The prediction has implications for companies developing RLTs based on actinium-225 (Ac-225), an alpha emitter that has potential advantages over the lutetium-177 payloads carried by Lutathera and Pluvicto. Ac-225 availability should rise in 2027, Sleuth said, but RLT developers must move now to avoid being locked out of supply. AstraZeneca and Novartis are among the companies with Ac-225 supply deals.
