Lilly’s $23B Q2 soars over expectations but Foundayo lags Novo’s rival oral GLP-1

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Eli Lilly’s shares rose nearly 5% to $1,170 apiece in premarket trading as the company reported $23 billion in revenue for the second quarter. The company’s market cap is $1.02 trillion as of the end of July.

Once again, Eli Lilly has delivered a massive earnings beat for the second quarter, with a 48% revenue increase to $23 billion. But the Indianapolis pharma’s oral GLP-1 Foundayo fell below expectations as patients lean toward Novo Nordisk’s rival product.

“While commercial performance was further bolstered by the broader portfolio, relatively in line Foundayo revenues (-3%) highlights persistent challenges for the product as patients prioritize efficacy over convenience in favor of Novo’s oral Wegovy,” BMO Capital Markets wrote in a first-take note on Wednesday morning.

Investors didn’t seem to mind, as predicted by BMO. Lilly’s shares rose just under 5% to $1,170 apiece in premarket trading. The company’s market cap is $1.02 trillion as of the end of July.

While Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill reached more than 3,000 patients in its first week on the market, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said a direct comparison of the two figures could be misleading given the shorter data collection time for Foundayo.

Lilly’s overall incretin portfolio delivered enough to keep investors happy. Diabetes drug Mounjaro beat consensus by 12% with $9.94 billion for the quarter, a whopping 91% increase over the same period a year earlier. So far this year, the therapy has risen 106% to $18.6 billion overall.

Zepbound followed with a 46% rise for the period to $4.93 billion, which represented a 6% beat as compared to consensus.

Foundayo clocked $98 million for the quarter, the first for which numbers are available after the oral medicine’s April 1 approval. This falls well below the $355 million that Novo took home for the first quarter that oral Wegovy was available.

“Relatively in line quarter (-3% vs. consensus) for Foundayo is likely sufficient given recently declining expectations,” BMO said.

Lilly noted that prices again declined for its products, but that was more than offset by a 60% volume increase. In the U.S., where pricing has been a particular irritation, revenue rose 33% to $14.4 billion as volume increased 37%. At the same time, realized prices fell 3%.

Outside the U.S., revenue increased 80% to $8.6 billion with a 113% increase in volume and 36% decrease in prices. This was mainly due to Mounjaro being added to China’s National Reimbursement Drug List, Lilly said.

“While pricing was a headwind for the incretin portfolio, volume was more than sufficient to make up for these declines as Lilly further deepens its launch in major markets,” BMO wrote.

Lilly will host a conference call at 10 a.m. ET. BMO expects to hear more about Foundayo’s launch trajectory in the U.S. and how a direct-to-consumer approach to marketing could impact sales. The company is also expected to address upcoming Medicare coverage for GLP-1 products, which could open up access to the drugs for more patients.

Executives should also speak to the upcoming launch of retatrutide, an obesity asset that has shown some of the strongest weight loss in the clinic so far. Lilly stated in the earnings release that the regulatory packet for the therapy is now complete for global registrations in obesity, obstructive sleep apnea and knee osteoarthritis pain. The company plans to file for an FDA application in the first quarter of 2027.

With weight loss topping 20% at 80 weeks in the Phase 3 TRIUMPH-2 and TRIUMPH-3 trials, Eli Lilly plans to file for retatrutide’s approval in the first quarter of 2027. Previously a filing was expected later this year.

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