NEW YORK, Dec. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- From the re-election of George W. Bush to the closure of key emergency rooms, significant moments in 2004 health care provider history will significantly shape the future of the U.S. health care industry, says Kurt Salmon Associates (KSA) Health Care Consulting Group.
* Re-election of George W. Bush. This Bush term will influence the health
care sector's evolution in a way that only a second-term administration
can. Bush was not elected on a health care agenda, but his mandate will
allow him to frame health care policy through Cabinet and Supreme Court
appointees. Bush's successes and failures in this arena will feed into
the debate, as the highly charged political issue of health care policy
increasingly influences presidential campaigns. Each election is an
inflection point in this debate, as significant change can only occur
along this repeating four-year timeline.
* Passage of expanded Medicare coverage. This is an early indication that
the political power of the Medicare population will inevitably trump the
increasing demands of the under-insured populations until the industry
reaches an unbearable crisis point. Medicare patients' demands increase
as coverage expands. The demands of the under-insured increase as
funding is diverted to Medicare. Hospitals will shoulder both burdens.
* Apparent failure of TennCare. Innovative approaches to health care
reform will continue to emerge from individual states. TennCare was an
early and initially promising effort at reform. Its demise is a lesson
in the vulnerability of such state-sponsored initiatives. TennCare
demonstrated the elasticity of demand for medical care where subsidies
heavily influence utilization levels and illustrated how poorly planned
attempts at universal care can consume an entire budget. Insurers' and
hospitals' incentives were whipsawed in the process.
* Flu vaccine production problems and Asia's avian flu. This season's flu
vaccine shortage was just a glimpse at the public health system's
vulnerabilities. Plus the World Health Organization (WHO) continues to
raise concerns about a flu-related pandemic. A collision of the two
dynamics could spell a public health crisis on par with the early days
of HIV/AIDS. Support will be slow in coming for hospitals during such a
crisis.
* Closure of key emergency departments. Trouble in the emergency
department can metastasize throughout a hospital. King/Drew Medical
Center in Los Angeles closed its trauma and emergency units to maintain
other services. Closure or downsizing of inner-city facilities comes at
a time when the health care underclass is growing exponentially. Other
major inner-city hospitals will follow suit, spreading the pain across
all markets.
* COX-2 problems on hospitals' shoulders. Findings that COX-2 inhibitors,
such as Vioxx, may have increased cardiovascular risks illustrate that
virtually all drugs have side effects that must be balanced with their
benefits in an appropriate manner. As the focus on blockbuster drugs
continues, hospitals will be the last line of defense when unexpected
costs, such as increased incidence of heart attacks, must be borne.
* Threat of tax exemption loss hits hospitals. As localities and states
seek additional revenue from large employers and property owners,
movements to more closely scrutinize the tax-exempt status of health
care organizations further threaten hospitals' precarious financial
position.
* National health information superhighway provides uneven ride. The
Federal government's drive toward a comprehensive electronic health
record paves the way for a much-needed health information superhighway.
But the failure to fund the Office of the Health Information Technology
Coordinator is a huge pothole along that path. Despite clarification of
kickback rules for hospitals' provision of information technology to
physicians, significant roadblocks remain.
The health care consulting group of Kurt Salmon Associates, Inc. (KSA) provides management advisory services in facility planning, strategy, and information technology to multi-hospital systems, community hospitals, academic medical centers, children's hospitals, and physician group practices. The group authored, "A View of the U.S. Health Care System and Implications for Providers: Year 2020." KSA is the premier global solutions provider to the retail, consumer products, and health care industries.
Kurt Salmon Associates, Inc.CONTACT: Beth Souther of Kurt Salmon Associates, Inc., +1-404-898-7819,cbs@kurtsalmon.com
Web site: http://www.kurtsalmon.com/
