Services PMI® at 55.3%; February 2021 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the services sector grew in February for the ninth month in a row, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

Business Activity Index at 55.5%; New Orders Index at 51.9%; Employment Index at 52.7%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 60.8%

TEMPE, Ariz., March 3, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the services sector grew in February for the ninth month in a row, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI® registered 55.3 percent, 3.4 percentage points lower than the January reading of 58.7 percent. This reading indicates the ninth straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 133 months.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 60.8 percent, up 3 percentage points from January’s reading of 57.8 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index figure of 71.8 percent is 7.6 percentage points higher than the January reading of 64.2 percent, indicating that prices increased in February, and at a faster rate. According to the Services PMI®, 17 services industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the ninth consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May. There was a pullback in the rate of growth in the services sector in February. Respondents are mostly optimistic about business recovery and the economy. Production-capacity constraints, material shortages and challenges in logistics and human resources are impacting the supply chain,” says Nieves.

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 17 services industries reporting growth in February — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Other Services; and Mining. The only industry reporting contraction in February is Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Suppliers are taking the opportunity with the commodity-price increases in the last few months to propose price increases that are above and beyond normal expectations, causing significant concern. Business growth remains optimistic on the emergence of a post-coronavirus [COVID-19] era in [the] second half of 2021. U.S. port delays are problematic.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “The declining COVID-19 cases in the four states we operate in, combined with the increased vaccination rates, should bode well for our increased business activity moving into the second quarter of 2021.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
  • “Sales of residential real estate continue to be strong, even outstripping supply. Cost inflation in building materials seen as shortages develop from sporadic COVID-19 closures at manufacturing facilities. Port congestion on the West Coast [and] winter weather in Canada closing mills and restricting truck shipping are contributing to product shortages nationwide.” (Construction)
  • “COVID-19 restrictions continue to affect the number of students either applying to college, living on campus or finding alternative means of a valuable education. As such, revenues have decreased while expenses increased.” (Educational Services)
  • “Business is steady during Q1 2021.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Exponential demand for critical supplies due to [the] pandemic is driving distributer allocations and forcing alternative sourcing.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Our company has an overall positive outlook, with new COVID-19 cases trending down nationally and vaccine distribution coming online. However, possible changes to the regulatory environment for oil and gas is a looming negative influence.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “The business continues to reduce real-estate/brick-and-mortar [operations] and transition to a work-from-home model. Innovation is the watchword in all things; as such, the need to right-size all consumption as patterns have changed.” (Information)
  • “Supplier deliveries continue to be an issue as well as lead-times. Additionally, price increases are occurring with more frequency for products containing raw materials such as copper and steel.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Construction and customer activity remains robust. Many materials have inconsistent lead times or are facing delivery delays.” (Utilities)
  • “We are seeing an ongoing influx of price increases due to raw-material shortages, labor shortages, and transportation delays.” (Wholesale Trade)
  • “We were excited [in January], when orders and activity were increasing. Now, they are not receding, but they’re flat month over month. That’s not the rebound we were hoping for.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

ISM® SERVICES SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE

COMPARISON OF ISM® SERVICES AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS

February 2021

Index

Services PMI®

Manufacturing PMI®

Series
Index

Feb

Series
Index

Jan

Percent
Point
Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend**

(Months)

Series
Index

Feb

Series
Index

Jan

Percent
Point
Change

Services
PMI®

55.3

58.7

-3.4

Growing

Slower

9

60.8

58.7

+2.1

Business
Activity/

Production

55.5

59.9

-4.4

Growing

Slower

9

63.2

60.7

+2.5

New Orders

51.9

61.8

-9.9

Growing

Slower

9

64.8

61.1

+3.7

Employment

52.7

55.2

-2.5

Growing

Slower

2

54.4

52.6

+1.8

Supplier
Deliveries

60.8

57.8

+3.0

Slowing

Faster

21

72.0

68.2

+3.8

Inventories

58.9

49.2

+9.7

Growing

From
Contracting

1

49.7

50.8

-1.1

Prices

71.8

64.2

+7.6

Increasing

Faster

45

86.0

82.1

+3.9

Backlog of
Orders

55.2

50.9

+4.3

Growing

Faster

2

64.0

59.7

+4.3

New Export
Orders

57.6

47.0

+10.6

Growing

From
Contracting

1

57.2

54.9

+2.3

Imports

50.5

53.5

-3.0

Growing

Slower

5

56.1

56.8

-0.7

Inventory
Sentiment

54.3

49.7

+4.6

Too High

From Too
Low

1

N/A

N/A

N/A

Customers’
Inventories

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

32.5

33.1

-0.6

Overall Economy

Growing

Slower

9

Services Sector

Growing

Slower

9

Services ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (2); Cheese Products; Corn; Copper (2); Copper Products; Diesel (3); Electronic Components; Electrical Components; Energy; Exam Gloves (5); Freight (3); Fuel (2); Gasoline (3); Labor (3); Labor — Temporary (2); Lumber (2); Natural Gas; Nitrile Gloves (6); Oil Products; Oriented Strand Board (OSB) (3); Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)* (13); PPE — Gloves (5); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products (6); Pharmaceuticals (2); Protein; Resin Products (2); Steel (6); Steel Products (2); and Wood Products.

Commodities Down in Price
Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)*.

Commodities in Short Supply
Ammunition; Appliances (2); Construction Contractors (5); COVID-19 Vaccine; Electrical Components (3); Exam Gloves; Gloves (3); Insulation; Labor (3); Labor — Construction (2); Labor — Temporary (2); N95 Masks (12); Needles & Syringes (3); Nitrile Gloves (9); Oriented Strand Board (OSB) (2); Packaging; Paper Products; Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) (13); PPE — Gloves (11); PPE — Gowns; Plastic Bags; Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products; Refrigerators; Shipping Containers; and Steel Products (3).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

FEBRUARY 2021 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI®

In February, the Services PMI® registered 55.3 percent, 3.4 percentage points lower than January figure of 58.7 percent. This reading indicates the services sector grew for the ninth consecutive month after two months of contraction and 123 months of growth before that. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the services sector is generally contracting.

A Services PMI® above 49.2 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the February Services PMI® indicates expansion for a ninth straight month following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of growth. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI® for February (55.3 percent) corresponds to a 2.2 -percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI® HISTORY

Month

Services PMI®

Month

Services PMI®

Feb 2021

55.3

Aug 2020

57.2

Jan 2021

58.7

Jul 2020

56.6

Dec 2020

57.7

Jun 2020

56.5

Nov 2020

56.8

May 2020

45.4

Oct 2020

56.2

Apr 2020

41.6

Sep 2020

57.2

Mar 2020

53.6

Average for 12 months – 54.4

High – 58.7

Low – 41.6

Business Activity
ISM®‘s Business Activity Index registered 55.5 percent in February, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points from the January reading of 59.9 percent. This represents growth for the ninth consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: “State restrictions on dining capacity have relaxed slightly” and “Elective surgeries on the rise.”

The 14 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of February — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Utilities; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting a decrease are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Other Services. Retail Trade is the only industry reporting no change in February compared to January.

Business Activity

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Feb 2021

26.2

59.3

14.6

55.5

Jan 2021

29.7

51.4

18.8

59.9

Dec 2020

31.4

50.4

18.2

60.5

Nov 2020

27.5

57.0

15.4

59.6

New Orders
ISM®‘s New Orders Index registered 51.9 percent, a decrease of 9.9 percentage points from the January reading of 61.8 percent. New orders grew for the ninth consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: “An increase in inventories needed to meet new demands” and “Increased demand due to building stock to cover through the Lunar New Year.”

The 11 industries reporting growth of new orders in February — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting a decrease in February are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Other Services.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Feb 2021

27.0

54.9

18.1

51.9

Jan 2021

30.5

51.6

17.9

61.8

Dec 2020

30.3

49.9

19.7

58.6

Nov 2020

29.6

55.2

15.1

59.0

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector grew in February for the second consecutive month after contracting in January. After 72 straight pre-pandemic months of expansion, the index contracted from March through September. ISM®‘s Services Employment Index registered 52.7 percent in February, down 2.5 percentage points from the January reading of 55.2 percent. Comments from respondents include: “Unable to fill vacant positions with qualified applicants” and “Need more resources to meet demand.”

The 11 industries reporting an increase in employment in February — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Other Services; Retail Trade; Utilities; Public Administration; Information; and Finance & Insurance. The six industries that reported a reduction in employment in February — listed in order — are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Feb 2021

16.4

69.2

14.3

52.7

Jan 2021

16.2

73.0

10.8

55.2

Dec 2020

14.6

66.8

18.6

48.7

Nov 2020

16.0

69.6

14.5

51.5

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 60.8 percent, which is 3 percentage points higher than the 57.8 percent reported in January. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Import logistics delays,” and “Trucking shortage is delaying orders two to five days.”

The 15 industries reporting slower deliveries in February — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; and Finance & Insurance. The two industries reporting faster deliveries in February are: Management of Companies & Support Services; and Educational Services.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Index

Feb 2021

25.7

70.2

4.0

60.8

Jan 2021

18.4

78.8

2.8

57.8

Dec 2020

27.6

70.4

2.0

62.8

Nov 2020

16.9

80.3

2.8

57.1

Inventories
The Inventories Index grew in February after a month of contraction. The reading of 58.9 percent was a 9.7-percentage point increase from the 49.2 percent reported in January. Of the total respondents in February, 46 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Increasing on-hand inventories to meet new business demands” and “Increasing stock of appliances since they are in short supply to meet our needs.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in February — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade. The four industries reporting a decrease in inventories in February are: Retail Trade; Construction; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Seven industries reported no change in inventories in February.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Feb 2021

31.0

55.9

13.1

58.9

Jan 2021

17.0

64.6

18.5

49.2

Dec 2020

28.6

59.2

12.2

58.2

Nov 2020

19.6

59.4

21.0

49.3

Prices
Prices paid by service organizations for materials and services increased in February, with the index registering 71.8 percent. This is 7.6 percentage points higher than the 64.2 percent reported in January.

The 16 services industries that reported an increase in prices paid during the month of February — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The only industry reporting a decrease in prices paid for February is Information.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Feb 2021

43.0

54.2

2.7

71.8

Jan 2021

32.0

63.3

4.8

64.2

Dec 2020

26.5

68.4

5.1

64.4

Nov 2020

32.0

62.2

5.8

63.9

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in February for the eighth time in the last nine months. The index registered 55.2 percent; 4.3 percentage points higher than the 50.9 percent reported in January. Of the total respondents in February, 54 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The eight industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in February — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The six industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in February are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Public Administration; Information; and Mining.

Backlog of Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Feb 2021

25.2

60.1

14.7

55.2

Jan 2021

13.9

74.0

12.1

50.9

Dec 2020

15.2

67.0

17.8

48.7

Nov 2020

19.0

63.3

17.6

50.7

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in February after contracting in January. The New Export Orders Index registered 57.6 percent in February, which is 10.6 percentage points higher than the 47 percent reported in January. Of the total respondents in February, 76 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The seven industries reporting an increase in new export orders in February — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries that reported a decrease in exports in February are: Other Services; Construction; and Retail Trade. Eight industries reported no change in February.

New Export Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Feb 2021

21.9

71.4

6.8

57.6

Jan 2021

13.2

67.7

19.2

47.0

Dec 2020

20.2

74.2

5.6

57.3

Nov 2020

15.0

70.8

14.2

50.4

Imports
The Imports Index grew at a slower rate in February, as it registered 50.5 percent, 3 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 53.5 percent. Seventy-seven percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The seven industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of February — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The four industries reporting a decrease in imports in February are: Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Educational Services. Seven industries reported no change.

Imports

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Feb 2021

16.8

67.4

15.8

50.5

Jan 2021

14.9

77.0

8.0

53.5

Dec 2020

8.8

86.0

5.2

51.8

Nov 2020

17.3

75.3

7.4

55.0

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM® Services Inventory Sentiment Index in February registered 54.3 percent, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than the 49.7 percent reading in January. This indicates inventories are too high after three months of index contraction.

The eight industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in February — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Information; and Public Administration. The three industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in February are: Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade. Seven industries reported no change in inventory sentiment.

Inventory
Sentiment

%Too

High

%About
Right

%Too

Low

Index

Feb 2021

19.4

69.7

10.9

54.3

Jan 2021

13.0

73.4

13.6

49.7

Dec 2020

10.2

75.1

14.8

47.7

Nov 2020

12.3

75.3

12.4

49.9

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of February 2021.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM® Report On Business® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI® above 49.2 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49.2 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49.2 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management®
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model®. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM® Report On Business® featuring March 2021 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, April 5, 2021.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

Contact:

Kristina Cahill

Report On Business® Analyst

ISM®, ROB/Research Manager

Tempe, Arizona

+1 480.455.5910

Email: kcahill@ismworld.org

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

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