Pace of Pharmaceutical Innovation Accelerates as Record Number of New Blockbuster Drugs Forecast to Hit the Market in 2018
PHILADELPHIA, March 22, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Clarivate Analytics, the global leader in providing trusted insights and analytics to accelerate the pace of innovation, announced today the launch of its annual "Drugs to Watch" report. The analysis identified 12 new drugs forecast to achieve annual sales of $1 billion or more (ie, blockbuster status) by 2022 using the Cortellis database, which includes information gathered from diverse sources including drug pipelines, patents, clinical trials, chemistry, deals and company announcements. More blockbuster drugs have been predicted to launch in 2018 than in any other year since the Drugs to Watch report began in 2013.
The drugs forecasted to launch in 2018 cover a wide range of therapeutic areas--ie, type 2 diabetes, endometriosis, childhood epilepsy, hemophilia, HIV, migraine, opioid addiction and shingles. Noteworthy examples on this list include:
Drug & company Disease & Impact
-------------- ----------------
Aimovig Migraine: Migraine is the third
most common disease in the world,
with an estimated global
prevalence of 14.7% (ie, 1 in 7
people).(1) Fewer than 50% of
patients with migraine are
satisfied with their current
treatment. After little movement
for many years, the migraine-
prevention market is about to
undergo a transformation with
several new drugs, known as
calcitonin gene-related peptide
(CGRP) receptor inhibitor.
(erenumab)
Amgen (USA) Aimovig (erenumab) has the
potential to contribute to the
transformation of the migraine
market in 2018.
Novartis (Switzerland)
---
Biktarvy HIV infection: 37 million people
globally are living with HIV; 21
million of whom receive
antiretroviral therapy.(2) While
antiretroviral therapy does not
cure HIV infection, it suppresses
viral replication and allows an
individual's immune system to
strengthen and regain the capacity
to fight off infections.
(tenofovir alafenamide +
emtricitabine + bictegravir) Expanding access to antiretroviral
treatment is at the heart of a new
set of targets for 2020, issued by
the WHO, which aim to end the AIDS
epidemic by 2030.(2) Biktarvy
offers an effective and simple
treatment option for patients with
HIV.
Gilead (USA)
-----------
Ozempic Type 2 diabetes: More than 425
million people globally live with
diabetes, 90% with type 2
diabetes. By 2045, this number is
projected to rise to 629
million.(3)
(semaglutide)
Novo Nordisk (Denmark) Despite competing in a crowded
market, Ozempic represents a new
treatment that helps patients
effectively control their blood
sugar and significantly reduces
the health risks commonly
associated with diabetes-such as
strokes and heart attacks. It is
forecast to perform well due to
its superior efficacy and safety
versus competitor products.
---------------------- ---------------------------------
Shingles: It's estimated around one
in every four people will have at
least one episode of shingles
during their life.4 The only
vaccine to make the list is GSK's
Shingrix (Zoster vaccine
recombinant, adjuvanted), which is
set to become the market leading
Shingrix shingles vaccine.
(Zoster vaccine
recombinant, adjuvanted)
GlaxoSmithKline (UK)
-------------------
Sublocade Opioid dependence: More than 15
million people are living with
opioid dependence worldwide.5 This
disorder is ongoing and is rapidly
evolving into a public health
crisis, with the US government
declaring a public health
emergency in late 2017.
(once-monthly buprenorphine)
Sublocade looks set to disrupt the
market for medication-assisted
treatment to overcome opioid use
disorder. It is administered via
subcutaneous injection once a
month by a healthcare provider and
does not require a detox period,
thereby addressing the limitations
of other treatment options.
Indivior (UK)
------------
2018 is also expected to see the launch of the first FDA-approved cannabidiol-based drug (Epidiolex)--potentially opening up a new market for cannabidiol-based medicines--and the first approved treatment option for men with castration-resistant prostate cancer (Erleada) whose cancer has not yet spread.
"Despite political and regulatory uncertainties in the USA and EU markets, the annual Drugs to Watch report 2018 shows that the pace of pharmaceutical innovation continues to accelerate," explained Mukhtar Ahmed, President, Life Sciences at Clarivate Analytics. "2018 is on track to see many new potential game-changing drugs come to market, which will benefit the lives of millions of patients around the world."
Data for this report were compiled from the Cortellis database, the premier source of life sciences competitive, clinical and regulatory intelligence and analytics which includes data gathered from diverse sources, including annual filings, drug pipelines, clinical trials, patents, chemistry, company announcements, deals and conferences.
ABOUT CORTELLIS
Cortellis delivers the unique insights needed to reduce risk and increase success across the drug development lifecycle from early discovery to commercialization and beyond. The Cortellis suite of solutions serves the needs of life science professionals with unmatched content, intelligent search, best-in class analytics and insightful visualization tools. For more information, visit clarivate.com/cortellis.
ABOUT THE DRUGS TO WATCH REPORT
The annual Drugs to Watch report was first published in 2013. Using data from Cortellis, the report aims to forecast which drug launches in a given year will achieve blockbuster status within five years of launch. Following an advanced analysis of this database, a shortlist of drugs is manually researched and evaluated by life-science experts at Clarivate Analytics, who review each drug in its individual context and assess clinical trial results, regulatory data, market data and regulatory designations for each drug.
The full report is available at: http://info.clarivate.com/drugstowatch2018
Follow us on Twitter: @Cortellis | #blockbusterdrugs2018
ABOUT CLARIVATE ANALYTICS
Clarivate Analytics is the global leader in providing trusted insights and analytics to accelerate the pace of innovation. Building on a heritage going back more than a century and a half, we have built some of the most trusted brands across the innovation lifecycle, including Web of Science, Cortellis, Derwent, CompuMark, MarkMonitor and Techstreet. Today, Clarivate Analytics is a new and independent company on a bold entrepreneurial mission to help our clients radically reduce the time from new ideas to life-changing innovations. For more information, please visit clarivate.com.
REFERENCES
1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3606966/
3. https://www.idf.org/about-diabetes/what-is-diabetes.html
4. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/shingles/
5. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24661272
Drug Disease 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Company (HQ)
---- ------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----------
1 Hemlibra (emicizumab)*,†,|,¶,‡‡ Hemophilia A with factor VIII inhibitors 496 1,457 2,356 3,362 4,002 Roche (Switzerland)/Chugai (Japan)
--- ------------------------------ ---------------------------------------- --- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----------------------------------
2 Biktarvy (tenofovir alafenamide + emtricitabine +
bictegravir)**,¶, †† HIV infection 896 2,282 3,387 4,296 3,716 Gilead (U.S.)
--- ------------------------------------------------- ------------- --- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------------
3 Ozempic (semaglutide)* Type 2 diabetes 260 862 1,576 2,583 3,469 Novo Nordisk (Denmark)
---
4 Erleada (apalutamide)¶,** Non-metastatic CRPC 25 500 1,200 1,600 2,000 Johnson & Johnson (U.S.)
--- ------------------------ ------------------- --- --- ----- ----- ----- -----------------------
5 Shingrix (Zoster vaccine recombinant, adjuvanted)§§ Shingles 242 537 879 1,202 1,368 GlaxoSmithKline (UK)
--- --------------------------------------------------- -------- --- --- --- ----- ----- -------------------
6 Patisiran§,|,¶,‡‡ Hereditary TTR amyloidosis 83 373 726 1,104 1,212 Alnylam (U.S.)/Genzyme (U.S.)
--- ---------------- -------------------------- --- --- --- ----- ----- -----------------------------
7 Epidiolex (plant-derived cannabidiol)‡|,¶,** Dravet syndrome and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome 19 266 645 936 1,191 GW Pharmaceuticals (UK)
---
8 Aimovig (erenumab)*,‡‡ Migraine 115 361 685 941 1,170 Amgen (U.S.)/Novartis (Switzerland)
--- --------------------- -------- --- --- --- --- ----- -----------------------------------
9 Lanadelumab*,†,|,¶,‡‡ Hereditary angioedema 74 350 629 902 1,153 Shire (Ireland)
--- -------------------- --------------------- --- --- --- --- ----- --------------
10 Elagolix¶,**,‡‡ Endometriosis 57 268 549 896 1,152 AbbVie (U.S.)
--- -------------- ------------- --- --- --- --- ----- ------------
11 Steglatro (ertugliflozin)** Type 2 diabetes 220 482 769 1,024 1,087 Pfizer (U.S.)/Merck (U.S.)
---
12 Sublocade (once-monthly buprenorphine)‡,¶,** Opioid dependence 121 308 439 634 1,072 Indivior (UK)
--- ------------------------------------------- ----------------- --- --- --- --- ----- ------------
Table: Analysis of 12 new drugs forecast to enter the market in 2018 and achieve blockbuster sales of over $1 billion by 2022
Data were obtained from the Cortellis Competitive Intelligence database, accessed March 05, 2018 (Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S). Forecasts are in U.S.$ million. CRPC=castration-resistant prostate cancer. TTR=transthyretin*=biological drug. †=Breakthrough Therapy designation. ‡=Fast Track designation. §=RNA interference. |=Orphan Drug designation. ¶=Priority Review. **=small molecule. ††=novel integrase inhibitor. ‡‡=first-in-class. §§= vaccine.