Climate Forum ry: The Carbon Dioxide Warming Effect of the IPCC’s Climate Model is 200% Too Great

HELSINKI--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The greenhouse effect, according to the IPCC, is due to the longwave absorption of 156 Wm^-2 by greenhouse gases and partly by clouds. This absorption flux should be able to reradiate back to the Earth 346 Wm^-2, which is impossible according to the energy conservation laws of physics. The overall effect of greenhouse gases is about 50% lower than the prevailing theory.

Other energy sources beside longwave radiation absorption are shortwave radiation absorption by the greenhouse gases and latent and sensible heating. Together, these four energy sources perfectly explain the reradiation flux by the atmosphere on the Earth’s surface. The total absorption contribution of 2.4 °C by carbon dioxide (CO₂) of 400 ppm means that the carbon dioxide warming effect of the IPCC’s calculations is about 200% too high.

“The portions of individual contributors are: water 45.6%, latent heating 30.8%, sensible heating 8.2%, carbon dioxide 7.3%, ozone 6.1%, clouds 0.9%, methane & nitrogen oxide 0.7% and aerosols 0.3%. The cloud effect is minimal, and it differs from other earlier studies (19% and 39%) because these studies do not consider the reduction of solar insolation by clouds,” said Ollila.

The reproduction of the radiative forcing by CO₂ gave a 41.6% lower value for 560 ppm than the same of the IPCC. The radiative forcing values are transformed into warming values by the climate sensitivity parameter (CSP). The CSP value of the IPCC is 0.5 K/(Wm^-2), which includes so-called positive water feedback, and which doubles the warming effects of greenhouse gases. According to this study, the CSP value is 0.27 K/(Wm^-2). The direct humidity and temperature observations confirm that there is no positive water feedback in the atmosphere,” said Ollila.

“The warming effect of CO₂, according to the radiative forcing equation and the CSP value of this study, can be nicely fitted into the overall greenhouse effect of CO₂, but it is not the case in the simple model of the IPCC,” said Ollila.

Journal Reference:

Ollila, Antero. Challenging the greenhouse effect specification and the climate sensitivity of the IPCC. Physical Science International Journal, 22(2): 1-19, 2019. http://www.journalpsij.com/index.php/PSIJ/article/view/30127/56520

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