Alnylam’s revenue cut “may create a near term credibility overhang and could “raise questions on peak sales potential, even if there’s tailwinds in the competitive landscape,” according to Stifel.
Alnylam has shaved $200 million off the full-year guidance midpoint for its transthyretin franchise, spurring investors to erase some $10.8 billion off the company’s market cap.
From its prior projection of between $4.4 billion and $4.7 billion, Alnylam now expects the transthyretin therapies to bring in $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion by year-end, the company revealed Thursday in a second quarter earnings report. This downward adjustment covers the sales of Onpattro, indicated for polyneuropathy associated with transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR-PN) and Amvuttra, approved for both ATTR-PN and ATTR-cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM).
The revenue cut “significantly surprised” analysts and investors, Stifel said in a note on Thursday, adding that the move “may create a near term credibility overhang.” In particular, it could “raise questions on peak sales potential, even if there’s tailwinds in the competitive landscape,” according to the firm.
The market appeared to agree, with Alnylam nosediving more than 28% at market close Thursday to $205.48 per share.
On balance, Stifel thinks the selloff is “probably overdone” considering the biopharma’s business is still likely to grow by at least 50% year-on-year. “But to be fair, the guide decrease was disappointing,” the analysts said.
William Blair had a similar reaction. “This is disappointing and there is no way to sugarcoat it,” the group wrote in a Thursday note, additionally pointing out that Alnylam missed consensus expectations for TTR revenues—further driving down the stock.
Indeed, the drugmaker on Thursday reported $1.03 billion in worldwide earnings for Amvuttra and Onpattro. While this sum represents 89% year-on-year growth—and marks the first time that Alnylam’s TTR franchise has breached the $1 billion mark—it still fell below analyst expectations. Amvuttra, for instance, brought in $1.01 billion in Q2, whereas the consensus mark was $1.05 billion, according to Stifel.
“This is the second time ALNY has missed consensus in the past three quarters and as a result, the stock appears to be pricing some credibility discount, and much greater uncertainty on the growth outlook,” the firm added.
There continues to be some dark clouds on Alnylam’s horizon, William Blair said. The failure of AstraZeneca and Ionis’ Wainua in the Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform trial earlier this month could pose some overhang for Alnylam’s next-generation drug nucresiran, which like Wainua is a TTR silencer.
AstraZeneca and Ionis are set to present data from the Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform trial at the European Society of Cardiology meeting next month, which “is likely to paint TTR silencers as adding no further benefit on top of TTR stabilizer therapy,” William Blair said. Alnylam can still credibly position nucresiran as differentiated from Wainua, according to the analysts, “but this could remain a show-me story.”
Alnylam is running the Phase 3 TRITON-CM trial to assess the asset in ATTR-CM, with initial data expected in 2030.
