Metsera showed the biopharma world that M&A is back. Who could be next?
With M&A back on the table after a dramatic bidding war for Metsera, analysts are searching for clues as to what biotech will be the next Big Pharma target.
That Metsera was bought surprised no one. The obesity biotech burst onto the scene in 2024, swiftly piling up the data to support its next-generation weight loss medications. So when Pfizer offered $4.9 billion in September, the industry nodded in agreement. Novo Nordisk’s unexpected return to the table in November, however, generated significant buzz and excitement across the industry.
The reaction to the deal was about more than just Metsera. It showed analysts that Big Pharma was hungry for new biotechs and willing to do whatever it takes for the right fit.
Analysts love to read the tea leaves and anticipate who might be the next target, so of course Metsera spurred this kind of prognosticating. Below, BioSpace examines the latest biotechs getting M&A chatter, including a couple of Metsera’s peers in weight loss.
Is Abivax the Next I&I ‘Darling’?
Pfizer just declared a desire for new inflammation and immunology assets and they’re not the only Big Pharma on the hunt. Abivax may just be the next I&I buy.
In a late November note, Truist Securities called the biotech, which focuses on chronic inflammatory diseases, “a potential take-out darling with strategic appeal.” That’s because of lead candidate obefazimod, a first-in-class oral therapy in Phase III development for ulcerative colitis and in Phase II for Crohn’s disease.
Obefazimod works by upregulating a microRNA called miR-124, which decreases proinflammatory cytokines and acts as “a physiological brake” of inflammation, according to Abivax. The biotech is expected to release maintenance data from the late-stage trial and data from the Crohn’s trial in the second half of 2026.
The ulcerative colitis space is crowded but there are plenty of unmet needs that a new mechanism of action could unlock, Truist said.
Already, obefazimod has been derisked, demonstrated “promising signals of efficacy with suitable safety/tolerability,” the firm added. With Big Pharmas continuing to watch the space, the firm believes Abivax “hold compelling strategic appeal.”
Truist pointed to Eli Lilly’s acquisition of Morphic Holdings and Merck’s Prometheus Biosciences buy as evidence. Buyouts of Verona Pharma, SpringWorks Therapeutics and Capstan Therapeutics also indicate that pharma is willing to pick up first-in-class medicines with novel mechanisms of action.
“While continued independent execution through late-stages could confer risk around exit expectations, we believe ongoing advancement should only heighten appeal and capture new value longer-term,” Truist said of Abivax.
Cobenfy Complications Clear Path For Maplight
Central nervous system disorders and neuropsychiatry drugs have been a hot space for Big Pharma deals in recent years, and Jefferies analysts think Maplight Therapeutics could be next.
Maplight is developing a therapy in the muscarinic class of neuropsych drugs that Big Pharma has shown an interest in. AbbVie bought Cerevel for $8.7 billion in December 2023 and Bristol Myers Squibb followed weeks later with a deal to buy Karuna Therapeutics for $14 billion.
It hasn’t been a straight path for either company, however. Cerevel’s lead asset ultimately did not succeed in schizophrenia. And while BMS’ Karuna-acquired muscarinic drug did, becoming the first new schizophrenia therapy in decades, a Phase III trial testing Cobenfy as an adjunctive therapy for schizophrenia failed failed to demonstrate significant symptom improvement. Then in early December, BMS announced that a much-anticipated readout for a Phase III trial in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis would be delayed until year-end 2026. The therapy’s future is now in question.
Cobenfy’s latest clinical hiccup has brought Maplight to the forefront, Jefferies wrote in a late November note. Maplight’s ML-007C-MA has “superior attributes” to Cobenfy, the analysts said, including competitive efficacy, better safety and tolerability and fewer discontinuations in clinical testing.
With Cobenfy now sidelined, Maplight has room to show what ML-007C-MA can do. The biotech has three potentially pivotal Phase II readouts coming in 2026 and 2027; schizophrenia data for ML-007C-MA is due in the second half of 2026; the drug’s Alzheimer’s disease psychosis test will readout in the second half of 2027; and data for ML-004 in autism spectrum disorder will arrive in the second half of 2026.
Each of these indications has about $1 billion in peak sales prospects, according to Jefferies. It’s safe to say Big Pharma will be watching Maplight and considering buying into a major rivalry with BMS.
Structure Underscores Prospect With GLP-1 Data
Some hot mid-stage data for the small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist aleniglipron was a nice boon to Structure Therapeutics’ stock last week. But the shares were already trading high in the wake of the Metsera deal, according to William Blair. Shares of Structure are up about 100% “likely driven by the M&A prospect,” according to the firm’s analysts.
Aleniglipron achieved weight loss that William Blair and BMO Capital Markets analysts declared comparable to Eli Lilly’s oral offering orforglipron, establishing the small biotech as a potential rival in the market currently dominated by Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
“Following a strong data release, we are seeing Structure emerge from the uncertainty of early-stage biotech as a real player in the obesity metabolic space,” BMO Capital Markets wrote after the recent results dropped.
Structure is well ahead in the crowded weight loss space, with aleniglipron positioned to be the second oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist behind Lilly’s orforglipron, which has a regulatory action date in March 2026, William Blair said.
BMO expects aleniglipron to hit peak sales of $3.8 billion by 2035 thanks to the new Phase IIb data. Structure will have a busy and “catalyst rich” 2026, with an end of Phase II meeting with the FDA expected by the end of the first half. The biotech will also release data for further studies in the ACCESS program. In the second half, Structure’s amylin and type II diabetes programs will read out.
Big Pharma will undoubtedly be keeping a sharp eye on those readouts.
Terns Takes a Turn For The Better
Watch out, Metsera. Terns Pharmaceuticals might be coming for the most dramatic biotech buyout crown.
After a Phase I readout for TERN-701 in chronic myeloid leukemia at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) annual meeting last week that analysts dubbed “unprecedented” with “superlative efficacy” , William Blair wondered: will the “differentiated data turn into a Big Pharma bidding war?”
What a turn Terns has taken to get to this readout. The company was originally focused on metabolic disease, including a mertabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) asset that was once in a neck-and-neck battle with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals. Terns also had an obesity asset that was once on the list of promising next-generation therapies.
Backing away from that path earlier this year, Terns is now focused on TERN-701. That pivot paid off last week with the data reveal, sending the biotech’s shares up 10%.
While Terns missed the MASH M&A excitement, analysts now wonder if they’ll get caught up in the Big Pharma hunt for new oncology assets.
Ventyx Runs Parallel to Pharma M&A Targets
San Diego–based Ventyx Biosciences has what pharma wants, according to William Blair: two NLRP3 inhibitors for inflammatory conditions. The target applies to a range of potential indications, from cardiovascular, metabolic, rheumatic, dermatologic and rare genetic diseases.
Pharma has been busy in adjacent disease areas to Ventyx’s work, including Novo’s recent $5.2 billion acquisition of Akero Therapeutics for a metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) asset. Pfizer and Metsera again appear as a potential teaser to a Ventyx acquisition, as does Novartis’ $1.4 billion buyout of Tourmaline Bio for a cardiovascular therapy.
Ventyx is running VTX2735 in a Phase II test for patients with recurrent pericarditis, a rare cardiovascular autoinflammatory condition that causes inflammation in the sac around the heart. The biotech plans to showcase data from a Phase II open-label test in the first quarter of 2026. This represents a slight delay, as Ventyx had originally planned to release the interim data in the last quarter of 2025. William Blair thinks the additional time will allow for a more robust, data-rich readout. A Phase III trial is slated for the second half of 2026.
Another key asset is VTX3232, which is being tested in Parkinson’s disease, cardiometabolic obesity and cardiovascular diseases. Sanofi has a right of first negotiation (ROFN) on the drug, suggesting potential interest in a buyout later on. The French pharma has a history of striking deals after signing these ROFN agreements.
Viking A Top M&A Pick—Again
Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. M&A chatter for Viking Therapeutics has been happening for years, as the biotech plays in one of the hottest biopharma spaces: obesity. But of course, with Metsera heightening excitement, the company is back on analysts’ lists as a potential buyout target.
“Overall, we continue to believe that Viking’s obesity franchise offers a unique set of attractive qualities that will be viewed favorably in the lens of big pharma from an M&A perspective, especially given the recent business development fervor,” William Blair wrote in mid-November, just under a week after the Metsera deal closed. The firm previously named Viking as its top acquisition pick for 2025.
Viking is pushing ahead quickly, a feat for a small biotech that has been made possible by the consumer excitement around weight loss medications. Its lead asset is VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist under development in bothsubcutaneous and oral formulations. Enrollment of 4,650 patients who are obese or overweight in the Phase III VANQUISH-1 trial is already complete. Results should arrive around mid-2027.
“We commend management for developing the asset at a torrid pace and moving into Phase III trials roughly three years after starting the Phase I trial,” William Blair wrote.
Should a deal never materialize, the firm believes Viking shareholders should still benefit as management plows ahead solo. But VK2735 would be better off with more experienced hands as the direct-to-consumer push has been hard to navigate even for market leaders Lilly and Novo, the analysts wrote.
“While Viking is advancing VK2735 directly to a Phase III program, given the unprecedented market opportunity in obesity, we believe that the value of VK2735 will ultimately be maximized in the hands of a Big Pharma, which could best navigate the rebate/discount-driven reimbursement landscape.”
Maybe 2026 will be Viking’s M&A year.
