March 22, 2005 -- Futurists speculate about what the world will look like in 20, or 30 years. Some are not shy and draw up scenarios for the next century. Unfortunately, most of these predictions are totally wrong. Most predictions extrapolate from present conditions forward. But extrapolating from the present forward requires overall stationary conditions and a kind of smooth continuum of current trends. It does not account for so-called disruptive events that are definitely non-stationary and can totally change the course of history. Most rapid changes in our history involve disruptive events. The convergence of nanotechnology and biotech could be one of those disruptive events, creating great future changes. But what would follow? We take a look...
