A future expansion of Rasonque into first-line pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma could set Revolution Medicines up to hit $2.3 billion in sales by 2028, according to Truist Securities.
With the approval of its pancreatic cancer medicine Rasonque, Revolution Medicines is poised to become the next big thing in cancer, analysts at Truist Securities say, pointing to the drug’s “unprecedented survival benefit” and potential to expand into even more oncology indications.
Rasonque’s second-line nod in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), handed out Wednesday afternoon, “marks the first and most important step in RVMD’s strategy to own PDAC” and serves as the company’s “commercial foundation for future line/setting expansion,” the firm told investors in a note after the approval.
Pointing to the possibility of Rasonque advancing into the first-line setting, Truist projected that revenues from the drug could hit $2.3 billion in 2028. The analysts also predicted Rasonque could expand to other indications such as non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer, and reiterated a bold prediction: “we believe RVMD remains on course to emerge as the next oncology titan.”
RevMed is running the Phase 3 RASolute 303 study of Rasonque, which is designed to test the drug, either as a monotherapy or in combination with chemotherapy, in previously untreated patients with metastatic PDAC. Data from this trial are expected by mid-2028.
The company is also conducting a registrational study of Rasonque for the second- and third-line treatment of metastatic NSCLC, as well as an early study in solid tumors.
However, when asked during a Wednesday afternoon call about the potential of filing for accelerated approval in first-line PDAC, company leaders were non-committal. “We generally don’t project that sort of thing into the future,” CEO Mark Goldsmith, told analysts. “We don’t have any particular comments to make about that today.”
The FDA approval nevertheless provides considerable “leeway,” allowing use of Rasonque (daraxonrasib) in patients who are ineligible for multi-agent systemic therapy, according to Truist. This population could potentially include previously untreated patients who don’t qualify for chemotherapy, which in turn “widens the addressable initial population and strengthens daraxon’s first-mover advantage,” the analysts added. Rasonque is the first broad RAS-targeting drug for PDAC to hit the market, RevMed said on Wednesday.
Following the approval, RevMed made Rasonque immediately available to patients, a move that Truist in a follow-on note said “is a statement on launch readiness.” A 30-day course of the drug costs $39,800, which the firm noted is “well-above” estimates. Still, the unmet need in PDAC and Rasonque’s “broad clinical utility”—alongside potential discounts and reimbursements—are likely to promote uptake, Truist said after RevMed’s Wednesday call. The firm expects Rasonque to make $101.7 million this year, growing to around $989 million next year—just shy of blockbuster status.
Leerink Partners, meanwhile, took a more balanced view of Rasonque’s approval, focusing on the drug’s safety print that could leave some room for competitors to exploit. “While Rasonque avoided a boxed warning, its dermatologic, gastrointestinal, and pulmonary warnings leave room for differentiated pan-RAS and pan-KRAS approaches to improve the therapeutic profile,” the group said.
The analysts didn’t name specific assets with a better safety profile than Rasonque but noted that other companies such as BridgeBio and Immuneering are advancing similar medicines and could follow in RevMed’s footsteps.
