Lower vaccine demand across every market and more acute pressures in Germany led BioNTech to lower the midpoint of its sales outlook by almost 20%.
BioNTech has lowered its full-year sales guidance by €400 million ($461 million) in response to falling demand for its COVID-19 vaccine.
The German biotech, which developed the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty with Pfizer, went into the second quarter forecasting full-year sales of €2 billion ($2.31 billion) to €2.3 billion ($2.65 billion). Developments in the quarter drove BioNTech to lower its outlook in an earnings report published Tuesday. Now, BioNTech expects full-year sales of €1.6 billion ($1.84 billion) to €1.9 billion ($2.19 billion).
Hitting the midpoint of the new range would represent a 40% drop in sales from the €2.9 billion ($3.34 billion) reported by the company last year. Multiple factors combined to drag the forecast down to a range that would represent BioNTech’s lowest annual sales since 2020.
BioNTech expects lower demand for its COVID-19 vaccines across every market, CFO Ramón Zapata said on the company’s second-quarter earnings call. The demand forecast reflects BioNTech’s monitoring of the evolving vaccine market.
The company faces particular pressures in its home market of Germany, which, for the first time, will use previously manufactured vaccine doses in the upcoming vaccination season. Germany’s decision could significantly reduce BioNTech’s sales there, Zapata said. The impact of falling sales in Germany is “more acute” because BioNTech manages operations in the country directly, he added.
Zapata named a European Medicines Agency decision as another pressure on vaccine sales. In May, an agency recommendation allowed “the use of the previous year’s vaccine formula as an alternative to the newly recommended XFG variant-adapted vaccines,” Zapata said.
Deteriorating prospects for COVID-19 vaccines accounted for about 80% of the cut to BioNTech’s sales outlook, according to the CFO. The timing of a milestone payment for an outlicensed R&D program, which is no longer expected in 2026, accounted for the remaining 20% of the reduction.
In the second quarter, falling demand for BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. caused the company’s revenues to drop to $106 million, down from $261 million one year ago. Yet Comirnaty sales at partner Pfizer beat the consensus estimate by 14%, BMO Capital Markets analysts said in a note to investors.
BioNTech is advancing a broad pipeline of oncology assets that could offset falling COVID-19 sales in the coming years. Responsibility for executing the strategy will fall on Guido Oelkers, who BioNTech unveiled as its new CEO on Monday.
CEO Ugur Sahin and CMO Özlem Türeci are leaving to start a new mRNA biotech. Talks about BioNTech’s “potential contributions” to the mRNA biotech are ongoing, Zapata said.
