A University of California scientist working at Los Alamos National Laboratory with collaborators from the University of Cambridge (England) and the World Health Organization National Influenza Center at Erasmus Medical Center, (Rotterdam, Netherlands) have developed a computer modeling method for mapping the evolution of the influenza virus. The method could soon help medical researchers worldwide develop a better understanding of certain mutations in influenza and other viruses that allow diseases to dodge the human immune system.In a paper published in today’s edition of the journal Science, the team of scientists from the United States and Europe describe their work quantifying and visualizing the antigenic and genetic evolution of the influenza A (H3N2) virus from its initial introduction into humans in 1968 up to 2003. The study resulted in a map that shows the virus evolved as a series of 11 closely related virus clusters as it has sought to elude human immunity over the decades.The mapping method will allow researchers involved in vaccine development and viral surveillance programs for influenza, and potentially for other pathogens such as Hepatitis C and HIV as well, to quantify and visualize the evolution of these viruses. It can assist in monitoring antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating viral strains, and can help in quantifying the effects of vaccination. The approach also offers a route for predicting the relative infection success of emerging virus strains.
