Influenza Vaccine Market is Forecasted to Worth US$ 22.71 Billion By 2032

The global influenza vaccine market was valued at US$ 8.78 billion in 2023. The global market is projected to hit the market valuation of US$ 22.71 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 11.07% during the forecast period from 2024 to 2032.

The influenza vaccine market continues to thrive, supported by strong government backing and partnerships with local stakeholders, leading to significant growth. Furthermore, the increasing prevalence of seasonal flu contributes to the overall demand for the vaccine. The Asia Pacific region presents attractive revenue prospects due to limited consumer awareness and availability.

The influenza vaccine market is experiencing notable expansion, with flu vaccines exhibiting different levels of effectiveness, yet all providing valuable protection. The CDC advises that individuals aged 6 months and above should receive the flu vaccine every flu season. Children aged 6 months to 8 years might require 2 doses within one flu season, while everyone else only needs 1 dose per season. The CDC projects that each dose can lower the risk by 40 to 60%, highlighting the ongoing necessity for new vaccines as the flu virus evolves.

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According to a study by the World Health Organization (WHO), the demand for seasonal influenza vaccines is stable and primarily concentrated in high- and upper-middle-income countries, which account for over 95% of the consumption of these vaccines. Surprisingly, only 27 countries organized into low- or lower-middle-income categories reported having a vaccination policy for seasonal influenza. The study forecasts a potential increase in demand for these vaccines by approximately 10% over the next 10 years. Notably, there is significant potential to enhance the use of these vaccines, particularly in lower-middle and low-income countries. Furthermore, the development of numerous vaccines with potential improvements over existing ones is expected to drive market growth during the forecast period. 

Government Support Promoting the Influenza Vaccine Market Growth

The increased awareness and government intervention are crucial factors driving the market, highlighting the pressing and expanding need for effective influenza vaccination strategies on a global scale. For instance, in October 2023, the Health Department in Hong Kong introduced the Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Subsidy Scheme (VSS) for the 2023/24 season. This program offers subsidized seasonal influenza and pneumococcal vaccination to eligible Hong Kong residents through the participation of private doctors.

The presence and extent of national policies governing influenza vaccine usage vary significantly. For instance, as of November 2023, 123 (63%) countries have reported having an influenza vaccination policy through the WHO/UNICEF Joint Reporting Form (JRF). This includes 96 (85%) countries categorized by the World Bank as high- (HIC) or upper-middle-income countries (UMIC). 

Among countries with a policy, 74 (60%) recommend vaccinating all WHO priority groups, while 41 countries (33%) have policies that go beyond WHO recommendations to encompass the entire population.

Conversely, only 27 (34%) of low- (LIC) and lower-middle-income countries (LMIC) have a policy recommendation to support public financing, procurement, or use of seasonal influenza vaccines, highlighting the unequal utilization of these vaccines in different income groups and thus presenting an opportunity for demand growth.

Production, Supply, and Consumption: An Analysis of Global Influenza Vaccine 

Influenza vaccine production, supply, and consumption are crucial for public health strategies to combat the impact of influenza viruses on global populations. The analysis of these aspects involves understanding the current production capacity, limitations, and challenges associated with the supply chain, as well as the efforts to improve vaccine effectiveness and distribution.

According to a study published by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2022, high-income countries (HICs) and upper-middle-income countries (UMICs) consumed 97% of the global seasonal influenza vaccine produced, with 92% of consumption in the Region of the Americas, European Region, and Western Pacific Regions combined. Globally, bulk vaccine is produced by 30 manufacturers, with seven of them responsible for over 85% of the global supply, and the remainder serving primarily local markets. The headquarters of bulk producers are diverse, but 75% are in Europe and Asia.

The global seasonal influenza vaccine programmatic dose requirements (PDR) are projected to total approximately 850 million doses in 2024, representing an increase from historical consumption due to policy changes made in 2022-2023 in high-volume countries, including China. Demand is expected to slowly increase between 2024 and 2034, reaching around 920 million doses by the end of the period, driven by the forecasted growth of the older persons population. As of November 2023, 29 seasonal influenza vaccines are in clinical development, with 27  considered improved vaccines. Additionally, 21 vaccines are being developed by nine new producers, creating a high likelihood of increasing supply to the market.

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Advancement in Production Development: A Major Trend to Watch

The global influenza vaccine market is experiencing a significant shift in vaccine development, marked by rapid technological advancements. This transformation is leading to a departure from traditional egg-based production methods to embrace cell culture and recombinant DNA technologies. These advancements not only promise faster production times but also potentially greater vaccine effectiveness.

According to the analysis of Astute Analytica, the cell culture process is gaining momentum and is projected to grow at the highest Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.48%. This trend is underscored by significant investments in cell-based vaccine manufacturing. For example, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services invested over $1 billion in 2019 for the development of cell-based influenza vaccine technology.

Investment in cell culture technology, including government funding and private sector Research and Development (R&D), is significantly contributing to the anticipated growth in this segment. Traditionally, egg-based vaccines take approximately six months to produce, which makes it impossible to respond quickly to fast-mutating influenza viruses.

Sanofi, CSL Seqirus, GSK, and AstraZeneca: Capturing 80% of Share

Sanofi, CSL Seqirus, GSK, and AstraZeneca collectively dominate over 80% of the market share, with Sanofi leading the pack in recent years. In 2022, Sanofi experienced a 2.4% increase in sales, selling 250 million doses of its flu vaccine product line. These industry giants consistently invest in research and development to fortify their positions.

AstraZeneca/MedImmune distinguishes itself by offering an influenza nasal spray. However, Sinovac Biotech and Bharat Biotech have opted to focus on meeting the specific needs of their respective regions rather than expanding globally. Furthermore, the ever-evolving technological landscape presents promising prospects for future competition in the market.

Top Players in the Global Influenza Vaccine Market 

  • Abbott Laboratories
  • AstraZeneca
  • Emergent BioSolutions Inc
  • Emergex Vaccines Holding Limited
  • GSK plc
  • Merck & Co., Inc.
  • OSIVAX
  • Pfizer Inc.
  • Sanofi SA
  • CSL Limited
  • Sinovac Biotech Ltd.
  • SK Bioscience Co., Ltd.
  • Viatris Inc.
  • Other Prominent Players

Market Segmentation Overview

By Type

  • Inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV)
    • Quadrivalent
    • Trivalent
  • Live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV)

By Process

  • Egg Based
  • Cell Culture-Based
  • Recombinant

By Route of Administration

  • Injectable
  • Intra-nasal

By Age Group

  • Pediatric
  • Adult

By Distribution Channel

  • Hospitals & Pharmacies
  • Government Suppliers
  • Others

By Geography

  • North America
  • Europe
  • Asia Pacific
  • Middle East & Africa (MEA)
  • South America

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