BIO2015: Prescription Drug Sales Will Hit Almost a Trillion Dollars By 2020, Says Report

Published: Jun 16, 2015

BIO2015: Prescription Drug Sales Will Hit Almost a Trillion Dollars By 2020, Says Report
June 16, 2015
By Riley McDermid, Breaking News Sr. Editor

A new report released this morning has found that worldwide prescription drug sales are expected to reach almost one trillion dollars by 2020, said data provider EvaluatePharma at the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) International conference.

EvaluatePharma on consensus forecasts for the leading 500 pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, will grow by a robust 4.8 percent per year (CAGR) to reach $987 billion by 2020,” said the company in a statement.

BIO’s attendees come from more than 65 countries and 47 states and will attend a variety of programming, panel, industry networking events and pavilion filled with industry business booths from Monday to Thursday. At night, attendees will enjoy receptions, sightseeing and concerts featuring artists like Kool and The Gang. The conference is estimated to bring $43.3 million to its host city of Philadelphia.

EvaluatePharma said although its prediction is lower than it initially had projected, the gap can be explained by a weaker euro, not less demand.

“This is $30 billion lower than the one trillion dollars predicted in last year’s edition of the World Preview; however, it finds that the market for prescription drugs, based it can largely be explained by the depreciation of the euro against the dollar,” said the company.

The ongoing issue of medications that will be coming off patent also remains an issue for the industry, said the company, which estimates that between 2015 and 2020, a total of $197 billion in sales are at risk from patent expiries.

But the market currently predicts only $99bn of this will materialize. In contrast, between 2009 and 2014, $120 billion of sales were lost,” said the report. “The reduction in expected sales lost over the next six years is largely due to softer post-patent sales erosion of biological products.”

Other fun facts? The report ranked companies by the most profitable, with Johnson & Johnson remaining the most valuable pharmaceutical company and recorded the highest net income in 2014. Gilead Sciences, Inc. also recorded blockbuster profits.

•Key prescription drug sales jump 4.9 percent in 2014, driven by an 8.9 percent surge in USA sales; Europe returns to growth at 2.4 percent; Japan slumps 2.6 percent in yen
• Industry’s R&D pipeline valued at $493 billion; Gilead’s potential new combination hepatitis C product most valuable
• Humira remained the top-selling product in 2014 with sales of $13 billion; Sovaldi debuts at number two with sales of $10 billion
•A record number of new drugs were approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2014; sales potential increases by 45 percent
AbbVie ’s Humira continues to account for over 25 percent of the anti-rheumatic market in 2020
Gilead continues to dominate the anti-viral segment in 2020 capturing over 50 percent of the entire market
•Humira is the leading product in USA in 2020 with sales of $8 billion; Celgene Corporation ’s Revlimid is a distant second with sales of $6 billion
Novartis AG was the number one pharmaceutical company in 2014 and is forecast to maintain its position in 2020
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. remained the leading generic drug maker in 2014 with sales of $9 billion
•The value of M&A transactions almost doubled to $116bn in 2014; the number of transactions increased after two years of decline
•The value of venture financing deals leapt 36 percent to $8.2 billion in 2014
Gilead Sciences achieved a net profit margin of over 50 percent in 2014

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