February 2011 -- A number of new and expensive hospital brands targeting serious infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria, particularly MRSA*, will launch over the next decade. These will generate revenues totalling nearly $2bn by 2019, according to independent market analyst Datamonitor.**
However, the forecasted upside provided by these pipeline products will be insufficient to offset the market decline caused by genericization, safety concerns, and resistance of the leading antibacterial brands. As a result, total antibacterial sales will decline from $19.62bn in 2009 to $16.41bn in 2019.
Richard Phelps, healthcare analyst at Datamonitor, comments: “A number of premium-priced hospital brands will be launched over the next decade, driven by the high unmet need for new drugs to treat serious infections caused by MRSA and other dangerous Gram-positive bacteria.
“These include: Forest Laboratories', AstraZeneca's, and Takeda’s Teflaro (ceftaroline); Novartis's and Paratek Pharmaceuticals’ PTK 0796; and Trius Therapeutics’ torezolid.
“Of the pipeline drugs, Teflaro (ceftaroline), with bactericidal activity against MRSA and broad-spectrum pathogen coverage, and torezolid, with once-daily, oral dosing for MRSA infections, currently have the best commercial outlook.”
According to Datamonitor, Levaquin will hold on to its market-leading position in 2019, principally due to its continued popularity, its broad coverage of respiratory and genitourinary infections, and the strong sales and marketing power of its marketing companies, combined with the genericization of many of the other biggest-selling antibacterial brands.
In the UK, the antibacterials market will essentially stagnate over the next decade. Total sales will decline from $671m in 2009 to $649m in 2019.
Richard concludes: “While the raft of new product launches will replenish sales in the second half of the decade, cost-containment within the National Health Service and reduced healthcare spending as a result of government public spending cuts will give the UK market a smaller potential upside from pipeline products compared to a number of the other major markets.”
* Multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus
** From the report Forecast Insight: Antibacterials (February 2011, HC00008-001)
Richard Phelps is available for comment.
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