by John D. Kelly, Tim J. Dudderidge, Alex Wollenschlaeger, Odu Okoturo, Keith Burling, Fiona Tulloch, Ian Halsall, Teresa Prevost, Andrew Toby Prevost, Joana C. Vasconcelos, Wendy Robson, Hing Y. Leung, Nikhil Vasdev, Robert S. Pickard, Gareth H. Williams, Kai Stoeber
Urinary biomarkers for bladder cancer detection are constrained by inadequate sensitivity or specificity. Here we evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of Mcm5, a novel cell cycle biomarker of aberrant growth, alone and in combination with NMP22. Methods
1677 consecutive patients under investigation for urinary tract malignancy were recruited to a prospective blinded observational study. All patients underwent ultrasound, intravenous urography, cystoscopy, urine culture and cytologic analysis. An immunofluorometric assay was used to measure Mcm5 levels in urine cell sediments. NMP22 urinary levels were determined with the FDA-approved NMP22® Test Kit. Results
Genito-urinary tract cancers were identified in 210/1564 (13%) patients with an Mcm5 result and in 195/1396 (14%) patients with an NMP22 result. At the assay cut-point where sensitivity and specificity were equal, the Mcm5 test detected primary and recurrent bladder cancers with 69% sensitivity (95% confidence interval?=?62–75%) and 93% negative predictive value (95% CI?=?92–95%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for Mcm5 was 0.75 (95% CI?=?0.71–0.79) and 0.72 (95% CI?=?0.67–0.77) for NMP22. Importantly, Mcm5 combined with NMP22 identified 95% (79/83; 95% CI?=?88–99%) of potentially life threatening diagnoses (i.e. grade 3 or carcinoma in situ or stage =pT1) with high specificity (72%, 95% CI?=?69–74%). Conclusions
The Mcm5 immunoassay is a non-invasive test for identifying patients with urothelial cancers with similar accuracy to the FDA-approved NMP22 ELISA Test Kit. The combination of Mcm5 plus NMP22 improves the detection of UCC and identifies 95% of clinically significant disease. Trials of a commercially developed Mcm5 assay suitable for an end-user laboratory alongside NMP22 are required to assess their potential clinical utility in improving diagnostic and surveillance care pathways.