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Apparent Temperature and Air Pollution vs. Elderly Population Mortality in Metro Vancouver
Published: Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Author: Goran Krstic

by Goran Krstic


Meteorological conditions and air pollution in urban environments have been associated with general population and elderly mortality, showing seasonal variation.


This study is designed to evaluate the relationship between apparent temperature (AT) and air pollution (PM2.5) vs. mortality in elderly population of Metro Vancouver.


Statistical analyses are performed on moving sum daily mortality rates vs. moving average AT and PM2.5 in 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day models for all seasons, warm temperatures above 15°C, and cold temperatures below 10°C.


Approximately 37% of the variation in all-season mortality from circulatory and respiratory causes can be explained by the variation in 7-day moving average apparent temperature (r2?=?0.37, p<0.001). Although the analytical results from air pollution models show increasingly better prediction ability of longer time-intervals (r2?=?0.012, p<0.001 in a 7-day model), a very weak negative association between elderly mortality and air pollution is observed.


Apparent temperature is associated with mortality from respiratory and circulatory causes in elderly population of Metro Vancouver. In a changing climate, one may anticipate to observe potential health impacts from the projected high- and particularly from the low-temperature extremes.