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Physics - Science Policy

Predicting Scholars' Scientific Impact
Published: Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Author: Amin Mazloumian

by Amin Mazloumian

We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of scientists. Our results show that i) among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii) future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately ( for a 1-year prediction, ) but iii) future citations of future work are hardly predictable.